⚠️ATTENTION: MARKET FORTUNE WEEK!!

Global Market Amid Iran-Taiwan Tensions: Trump-Xi Summit and the Shadow of War
• Diplomatic Chess and the Taiwan Card: Trump is preparing to visit China after deciding to provide $11 billion in arms aid. The US using Taiwan as leverage is increasing tensions between the two countries.
• Iran Knot Remains Unresolved: While the US expects China to exert pressure on Iran, Iran’s uncompromising and conditional response has escalated tensions. It remains uncertain whether China will step in for US-Iran peace in this equation.
• Risk of War and Timing: The general market consensus is that Trump will not attack Iran before his China visit, but the risk of war could significantly increase after the visit.
• Sharp Divergence in Asset Prices:
• Stocks and Artificial Intelligence: Reaching record levels fueled by AI winds.
• Dollar and Gold: The dollar remains resilient due to the strength of the US economy, while gold ($4,710) remains strong as a safe haven demand.
• Bonds and Oil: The group pricing in the costs of war (inflation, debt burden) and supply risks most "realistically."
• Critical Data Set and FED: The US CPI to be announced today and PPI tomorrow could trigger a hawkish stance from the FED if they exceed expectations. This could put Trump in a "war or voters?" dilemma before the midterms.
• Domestic Market and CBRT: All eyes are on Thursday’s second Inflation Report of the year. Whether the Central Bank revises its targets is critical for market direction.
In summary: The most ideal scenario is low US inflation and a positive Trump-Xi meeting; otherwise (war scenario), the rally in US stocks could end, and gold, silver, and Bitcoin could fall sharply.
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