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Tonight 8:30 PM, the U.S. April CPI will be released—trading is destined to be anything but calm. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish: shorts are crowded, and funding rates continue to stay negative. This often signals a reversal is coming.
My view is very clear: as long as the CPI does not exceed expectations and worsen further (core CPI month-over-month ≤ 0.3%), “all the bad news has been priced in” is the biggest positive. The short squeeze triggered by shorts covering in bulk, combined with Bitcoin currently sitting in a key support zone, along with strong post-oversold rebound demand, means a rally could start at any moment.
Under a consensus of pessimistic expectations, history has repeatedly proven it: if it doesn’t fall, then it must rise!
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