I just studied a pretty interesting market theory called the Benner cycle, which was proposed by an American farmer named Samuel Benner in the 19th century. This guy isn’t an economist; he’s a pig farmer, but through his personal experiences in agriculture and finance, he discovered patterns in market movements.

You see, Benner experienced multiple economic crises and agricultural downturns, losing quite a bit of money, then turning things around. After repeatedly going through these cycles, he started pondering a question: why does the market always repeat the same patterns? This thinking eventually led him to publish a book in 1875, systematically explaining his findings.

The core logic of the Benner cycle is actually quite simple: it divides the market into three types of years. The first is "Year A," which is a panic year, when the market crashes. He predicted these years occur roughly every 18 to 20 years, such as 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, and 2019. The second is "Year B," which is a good time to sell, when the market reaches a peak, assets are overhyped, and the economy is at its boom. The third is "Year C," which is the golden period for bottom-fishing, when the market is at a low, assets are cheap, and it’s a great opportunity to buy in large quantities.

Initially, Benner studied agricultural commodity prices like iron, corn, and pork. But later, traders and economists applied this theory to stocks, bonds, and even today’s cryptocurrency markets.

I think the Benner cycle is especially relevant to today’s crypto market. You see, the volatility in the crypto space is fundamentally driven by emotions—ranging from extreme greed to extreme fear. This cyclical emotional change aligns closely with Benner’s framework. For example, the major correction in 2019 fits his predicted "Year A" panic. And his forecast that 2026 will be a "Year B," meaning a market top and selling window, seems quite interesting now.

For crypto traders, understanding the Benner cycle has several practical benefits. During a bull market (corresponding to "Year B"), you can sell in stages at the top to lock in profits. During a bear market (corresponding to "Year C"), it’s a good time to accumulate assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum because prices are low. This approach is especially suitable for long-term holders who don’t want to trade frequently.

Ultimately, the Benner cycle reminds us of an important fact: market ups and downs aren’t entirely random but follow certain human and economic cyclical patterns. From extreme excitement to extreme fear, this cycle keeps repeating in financial markets. Whether you’re trading stocks, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, understanding the framework of the Benner cycle can help you stay rational during intense emotional swings and find the best timing to enter and exit.