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Open Window
The Trump administration is managing to keep markets from panicking over rising inflation: investors are being fed the idea that high prices are temporary. The simple logic is - the war will end, oil prices will go down, and along with it, inflationary pressure will weaken.
This narrative is not eternal, but the window of opportunity remains open for now.
After strong reports from big tech companies, the market has gained new momentum for growth, and the next important report — Nvidia — will only be released on May 20. Expectations for Huang’s company seem justified: key chip buyers have already shown strong results and are capable of continuing to increase CAPEX. The main risk is the gradual intensification of competition.
Expectations for CPI are again overstated, so the BLS will easily fit into the required range and present the statistics as a signal of “decreasing inflation,” which will quickly be picked up by the media and AI agents.
The baseline scenario is that the market will perceive tomorrow’s CPI positively even if the figures are weak, provided no negative news about the “Iranian line” emerges.
While the window is open, capital rotation continues in crypto, with ETH remaining the main liquidity donor for altcoins.