#BTC Let's talk about the key levels for ETH tonight, and clarify the logic for everyone:

Recently, ETH has clearly underperformed compared to Bitcoin, although earlier during the rebound at 1736, it showed stronger resilience than Bitcoin. But when it reached the high of 2473, the big bearish candle triggered the decline, and since then it has been consolidating at high levels, with higher lows and slowly rising highs. It entered a converging triangle earlier than Bitcoin, and the direction is likely to be decided this week, with tonight’s CPI being the trigger. Planning for three key scenarios:
- 🔴 Bearish Shock: CPI year-over-year > 3.8%, core monthly rate > 0.4%, inflation exceeds expectations and explodes, the market prices in a delay of Fed rate cuts, the dollar and US bonds rally, and ETH breaks below the triangle support, first aiming for 1980, and if it can't hold, it will head straight to 1800.

- 🟡 Neutral Volatility: CPI between 3.6% and 3.7%, roughly in line with expectations, the market has no clear direction, ETH continues to grind within the triangle, waiting for Thursday’s unemployment claims and Friday’s WOSH speech to decide the direction.

- 🟢 Bullish Rebound: CPI below 3.6%, inflation cooling off faster than expected, the market bets on an early rate cut, and ETH rebounds with market sentiment, challenging the upper boundary of the triangle.

But honestly, given the current macro environment and market conditions, the probability of a downward breakdown is much higher. There are a bunch of profit-taking sell orders above ETH waiting to hit, and the rebound itself isn’t as strong as Bitcoin. Once market sentiment turns sour, the decline will be faster than anyone else.
So tonight, I plan to pre-position in KOK, and once the bearish CPI signals are confirmed, I will open a long position in KOK and follow the trend.