#Gate广场五月交易分享

My SOL intraday long plan

1. Market Summary and Technical Analysis

Current SOL price: $96.38, 24h increase: +1.15%, stronger than Bitcoin and Ethereum. From a technical indicator perspective, SOL’s mid-term trend framework is stronger than ETH and BTC. 4-hour bullish alignment (MA7=96.30 > MA30=92.89 > MA120=87.18), ADX at 50.46—this indicates a very clear and strong upward trend. The 4-hour SAR trailing stop is at 92.84, providing about a 3.5 USDT safety margin from the current price. 7-day gain of 8.1%, 30-day gain of 11.4%, 90-day gain of 22.9%, with recent performance continuously outperforming the market.

However, short-term issues are prominent, almost a "signal-dense warning zone":

Daily chart fully overbought—CCI 163.9 (overbought), WR -11.8 (overbought), RSI 70.4 (overbought). All three overbought indicators flashing simultaneously suggest the daily timeframe’s rally is overheated, with a significantly higher probability of a short-term correction.

Double top pattern confirmed—Between 17:00 on May 10 and 05:00 on May 11, the price twice surged to similar levels without breaking through, then fell below the neckline support, clearly confirming a top. The theoretical downside target for the double top is approximately the distance from the peak to the neckline.

Daily SAR turning bearish—Daily SAR=94.33, coinciding exactly with the recent 14-candle low of 94.33, forming a key support convergence point. The SAR point is above the recent candles’ high of 89.83, showing a bearish stop-loss line characteristic. This indicates the daily trend-following indicator has shifted to bearish, conflicting with the 4-hour bullish signals.

15-minute short-term weakening—Closing price broke below the 15-minute MA20 (97.07), confirming short-term weakness.

Good news: Bollinger Bands opening upward (bandwidth 18.42, well above the 20-day average of 8.58), price near the upper band at 96.99, momentum still releasing; 24h volume surging (far exceeding average), indicating increased capital participation; positive sentiment ratio as high as 79%, very optimistic.

2. News and Sentiment

Two substantial positives: First, Solana ETF net inflow in April was $38.69 million, with a single-day net inflow of $1.74 million on May 5, indicating continuous institutional capital entry; second, State Street (a $5 trillion asset management giant) launched a tokenized fund SWEEP on Solana, offering 24/7 on-chain cash management for institutions—marking a significant adoption of the Solana ecosystem by traditional finance giants.

On the negative side, community discussions point out serious issues with bots/arbitrage ("vamps") on Solana, which may lead to user loss to other chains.

3. Trading Plan

Build positions in two phases after a correction

Phase 1 — Entry zone 94.30-94.50, suggested position size 40%

The daily SAR=94.33 coincides exactly with the 24h low of 94.33, forming a critical support convergence. Price retraced from 96.38 to this zone, touching the daily SAR bearish stop-loss line and the intraday low at the same time, providing dual support. If signs of stabilization appear (15-minute candles turn bullish, MACD bottom divergence confirmed, volume shifts from high to low), consider entering with a light position.

Note: The daily SAR above the candles indicates a bearish stop-loss line, meaning 94.33 is both a support and a defensive line. If the price stabilizes and rebounds here, breaking the stop-loss line, the SAR may turn bullish again—this would be a strong bullish confirmation. But if volume increases and breaks below 94.33, the daily bearish trend continues, invalidating the long setup.

Phase 2 — Entry zone 92.80-93.00, suggested position size 50%

The 4-hour SAR bullish stop-loss is at 92.84, and the 4-hour MA30 is at 92.89—almost overlapping, forming the last trend support at the 4-hour level. If the price sharply retraces to this zone, it’s the final safeguard of the 4-hour trend framework, offering stronger support. But if it falls below 92.80, the 4-hour SAR turns bearish, and the long thesis is invalidated—stop loss should be triggered, no additional buy.

Remaining 10% of the position is kept flexible—if after entering phase 1 the price rebounds strongly and breaks above 97, this 10% can be used to add to the long.

Take profit targets: staged partial exits

Target 1 — 97.00-97.10: Near the upper Bollinger Band at 96.99 and the 15-minute MA20 at 97.07, representing the first resistance. Upon reaching, reduce position by 30%. If the price stalls and pulls back, indicating the rebound is just a correction of oversold conditions rather than a trend continuation, consider taking remaining profits.

Target 2 — 98.40: The 24h high and the two peaks of the double top pattern. If the price breaks through and stabilizes above this level, the double top pattern is invalidated, and the trend reopens upward. Reduce another 40% upon reaching.

Target 3 — 100-102: Psychological round numbers and previous high zones. If intraday momentum continues to explode, these levels may be reached. Use remaining position to chase, with trailing stop adjustments.

Stop-loss setup: Dual stop-loss system

Hard stop: 92.70 (below the 4-hour SAR at 92.84 and the 4-hour MA30 at 92.89 by about 0.15 USDT, confirming the failure of the 4-hour bullish structure—exit immediately)

Pattern-based stop: If after entering phase 1 (94.30-94.50), volume drops sharply below 94.00 without signs of stabilization, even if the hard stop at 92.70 isn’t hit, exit early—double top neckline break often leads to rapid decline, especially in high-volatility assets like SOL.

Moving stop-loss rules: After entry, if the price rebounds more than 1 USDT, move the stop-loss to entry price +0.1 USDT (break-even stop); after reaching target 1, move the remaining stop-loss to 94.50; after target 2, move it to 96.00.