#Gate广场五月交易分享

My intraday ETH long plan
1. Market summary and technical analysis
Current ETH price: $2,310.44, 24h change: -1.53%, weaker than Bitcoin, with the daily chart still showing a bullish arrangement (MA7=2,329 > MA30=2,328 > MA120=2,288), but the three moving averages are nearly converged—MA7 and MA30 differ by only 1 point, indicating very weak trend strength. The daily SAR bullish stop-loss line is below 2,265, the framework remains bullish but with limited safety margin.
Short-term signals are fully bearish: 15-minute level bearish arrangement (MA7 < MA30 < MA120), MDI significantly higher than PDI (37.7 vs 8.5), indicating a clear downtrend. The 4-hour MACD just showed a death cross (DIF crossing below DEA), confirming a bearish signal. 24h volume is about 289 million USDT, far above the average, but the price dropped 1.53%, with increased volume and panic intensifying. The 15-minute CCI is oversold (-115), MACD divergence at the bottom is emerging, suggesting a short-term rebound correction is needed, but not yet confirmed.
More noteworthy are two pattern signals: first, the Bollinger Band width is at a near 30-day low (127.29, 30-day max bandwidth 501), indicating an imminent breakout; second, a double top pattern appeared between May 10 and 11—price twice surged to similar levels without breaking through, then broke below the neckline support, confirming a clear top signal. The combination of these signals suggests a potential downward trend reversal, so caution is advised for long entries.
2. News sentiment
Positive: BitMine (under Tom Lee) continues large-scale ETH purchases, recently buying another $70 million, holding over 5.2 million ETH (4.31% of total supply), showing strong institutional buying; ETH ETF saw net inflow of $97.57 million on May 5.
Negative: ETH underperformed BTC by 1.51% today, spot demand is weak;
3. Trading plan
Build positions in two batches with a conservative stance
Batch 1 — Entry zone 2,295-2,300, suggested position size 30% (lighter than usual)
The 4-hour SAR bullish stop-loss line is at 2,295.58, and the 24h low is also at 2,295.58—almost coinciding, indicating this is the last line of defense for the current bullish trend. Price has dropped from 2,310 to near this zone. If it retraces to 2,295-2,300 and shows signs of stabilization (15-minute CCI oversold with rebound, bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, MACD divergence confirmed), a very light position can be tested for entry.
It must be emphasized: the double top pattern is confirmed; once the neckline is broken, the downward momentum is stronger. Long positions are a counter-trend operation. Therefore, only 30% of the position should be allocated here—preferably less profit, avoiding heavy contrarian positions.
Batch 2 — Entry zone 2,265-2,270, suggested position size 50%
The daily SAR bullish stop-loss line is at 2,265, which is also the last trend support on the daily chart. If the price sharply retraces to this level, risk is more fully released. Both the 4-hour and daily bullish stop-loss lines converge near this point, providing stronger support. But the key condition: if the price falls below 2,265, the daily SAR turns bearish, invalidating the long logic, and no additional positions should be added—stop loss is necessary.
Remaining 20% of the position is for flexibility—if after entering Batch 1 the price rebounds strongly, once it confirms a breakout above 2,330, this 20% can be added to chase the long.
Take profit targets: laddered partial exits
Target 1 — 2,330: near the 15-minute MA20 (2,330) and the recent 14-candle average high, serving as the first resistance. This is also the neckline of the double top; whether it can break through determines if the rebound continues. Upon reaching, reduce 30%. If it stalls and pulls back, it indicates the rebound is just an oversold correction, not a trend reversal, so remaining positions should also be closed.
Target 2 — 2,347-2,350: near the 24-hour high of 2,347.70, also the two peaks of the double top. If it breaks and stabilizes above this zone, the double top pattern is invalidated, and the trend turns bullish again. Reduce another 40% upon reaching.
Target 3 — 2,400-2,420: the April high and key resistance discussed in the community. If intraday momentum explodes, it may reach this level. Remaining positions can chase, with trailing stop adjustments.
Stop-loss setup: dual stop-loss system
Hard stop-loss: 2,260 (below the daily SAR at 2,265 by about 5 points, confirming the failure of the daily bullish structure—must exit, no holding through)
Pattern stop-loss: if after entering Batch 1 (2,295-2,300), the price continues to drop sharply and breaks below 2,290 without signs of stabilization—even if the hard stop at 2,260 is not hit—stop loss should be triggered early. The continuation after the double top neckline break often comes quickly, and waiting for the hard stop might result in too much loss.
Trailing stop rule: after entry, if the price rebounds more than 20 points, move the stop loss to entry price +3 points (break-even). After reaching target 1, move the remaining position’s stop loss to 2,300; after target 2, move it to 2,320.