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Lately I've been watching B, this meme coin, and it's really making my teeth itch, like there are two little guys fighting in my heart, torn to death. Come on, let's vent to everyone and see how this situation will unfold.
B coin has been really fierce recently, rising all the way with hardly any pullback. Looking at the candlestick chart, those who don't understand might think this is some groundbreaking high-tech project changing the world. Actually, everyone knows it's just a "pet coin" within the USD1 stablecoin ecosystem. In the crypto world, stablecoins creating ecosystems with a "favorite pet coin" is a common routine, but because they have a good parent, these coins tend to surge early on, no doubt about it.
Logically, after such a big rise, seasoned traders would definitely want to open a short position to crush it, right? I want to short too! And I really want to! Because B's "grandma"—that is, USD1's parent company WLFI—has recently been in trouble, carrying a big minefield. I won't go into the details of the minefield, but basically, it's the kind of big risk that makes you think "this company is bound to have issues" just from the news. If this mine explodes, USD1 will be affected, and as its pet coin, B will definitely crash in a cascade. Thinking about this, shorting it seems like a money-making opportunity!
But! The trap lies exactly in this "but."
Although WLFI's minefield is huge, their USD1 stablecoin has recently been flush with cash, aggressively running promotions, marketing, and giving away money to attract new users. With stablecoins riding the wave, funds are pouring in like a river. This has led to an extremely disgusting situation: as long as USD1 keeps spending money on activities, the hot money in the market won't stop, and B, as the only "emotional outlet" and "favorite son" in this ecosystem, will be continuously pushed higher by funds.
What does this feel like? It’s like knowing that a rich kid’s dad (WLFI) is about to go to jail for economic crimes. Logically, this rich kid should soon fall into hardship, and you want to step on him early (short). But then you find out that this rich kid is still holding his dad’s unfrozen black card (USD1 activity funds), partying wildly in the top nightclubs, with a bunch of little brothers around him. If you go bother him now, he’ll hire bodyguards with the remaining money to break your legs (a big dump or short squeeze); but if you don’t bother him, you know his dad is about to go in, and this kid will eventually be finished. You can’t make money, and it feels like scratching a cat.
If I short B now, what if USD1 suddenly launches some recharge-and-reward activity or a huge airdrop, causing B to spike instantly? My short position would be blown out immediately, leaving me with nothing, collapsing just before dawn. If I don’t short, seeing WLFI’s potential minefield ready to explode at any moment, I feel like not making this money is a waste of heaven, and I can't sleep peacefully at night.
Now I’m extremely conflicted. Short it, afraid of being drained by short-term liquidity; not short it, and I just can’t bring myself to go long logically. The crypto market’s worst nightmare is this kind of "logic versus capital" situation—fundamentals are a mess, but the capital is insanely strong. I don’t know how you guys handle these sickly coins that are running wild? Do you follow the capital to make quick money on the long side, or hold on to the logic and short on the highs? Drop your advice in the comments—can this rich kid’s legs really be stepped on? $WLFI $B