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Recently, I noticed that Bitcoin is stuck around $80,000 and won’t move. On the surface, it looks like the rally has lost steam, but in reality, there’s a hidden “invisible hand” lurking in the background wreaking havoc.
I went through Deribit’s data and found that a large number of call option contracts are piling up at the $80,000 level. To manage risk, these market makers only have to sell spot holdings in the opposite direction whenever Bitcoin rises, creating a ceiling effect. An analyst at GSR Asset Management pointed out that many speculators view $80,000 as a relatively safe peak; they heavily sell call options to collect premiums, and the result is this kind of “electric-grid” style suppression.
Just look at the May expiry positions. On its own, the call options expiring on May 1 amount to $160 million; and those expiring on May 29 are even as high as $566 million. These contracts keep getting rolled over into later months, and traders continue selling calls betting that Bitcoin won’t be able to break through in the short term.
Honestly, the current market is “supported but lacking passion.” Since the end of March, Bitcoin is up more than 12%, but last year’s retail frenzy is long gone—now it’s only institutions that are quietly building positions. With recent turbulence in the US stock market, the crypto market is shaking too. If you want to buy more to position yourself, you’ll have to wait—unless the spot buying suddenly surges, it will be very difficult to truly break through the $80,000 level.
As of today, Bitcoin is hovering around $81,000, and in the short term it looks like this stalemate will persist.