On the evening of May 12, the U.S. April CPI data will become the key catalyst for short-term market action in the crypto space. At present, the market expects the CPI year-over-year rate to be 3.7% and the core CPI year-over-year rate to be 2.7%, and the data will directly affect expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

If the data comes in higher than expected, with inflation persistence running hotter than anticipated, the market will reprice the delay in rate cuts—potentially even pricing in the risk of rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets such as BTC and ETH will most likely face pressure and pull back, with the short term possibly testing key support levels. If the data comes in lower than expected, with clear signs that inflation is cooling, rate-cut expectations will heat up, and funds will flow back into the crypto market, pushing crypto prices higher. Combined with other data such as the ADP employment report, market volatility will be significantly amplified. In terms of execution, you need to strictly control position sizes, focus on confirming the direction after the data is released, and avoid blindly chasing orders.
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