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I recently looked at the options market data and found this wave of market activity quite interesting. The combined notional value of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts exceeds $2 billion, with a significant amount expiring today, but market sentiment remains surprisingly calm.
Bitcoin has risen from $75,000 last week to $82,000, now stabilizing around $81,000, but the implied volatility (IV) of options is only about 35%, whereas Ethereum's IV is around 50%. Interestingly, despite the strong upward trend, the overall market directional sentiment remains neutral to slightly weak, with skew remaining largely unchanged.
I noticed that this week's options trading volume hit a record low, with only 5% of positions held at the end of May and just 30% in June. Block trades are also inactive, indicating typical consolidation signals. Both Ethereum and Bitcoin lack clear short-term direction, while medium- to long-term options IV has slightly decreased. The current strategy is mainly to focus on medium- to long-term contracts, while also considering some high-quality altcoins, which might be more cost-effective.