From the early hours to before dawn, there were two consecutive waves of sharp rises followed by pullbacks. In the afternoon, price moved within a tight range, and in the evening it continued to probe downward. After the first pullback, it suggested there was still an expectation of further correction. After the second dip, it directly indicated that positions should be managed independently, while also noting that Kongdan had 400 points. The second wave of pullback was mainly driven by fundamentals: “Wang (the so-called King) announced the restart of the Freedom Plan.” Taking cues from the fundamentals, although the stance is at 813, there is also a 700-point level. The intraday price action has been quite interesting. This is also what was discussed on Sunday: there are quite a lot of fundamentals this week, and it falls under a policy window. It not only tests your understanding of the trend structure, but also requires you to keep an eye on developments in the fundamentals at all times.

In the near term, the fundamentals are still the same: they have a temporary impact on the trend, but lack follow-through. The reasons have been explained before, so I won’t repeat them. Coming back to the trend structure—overall, the current rebound is under pressure from the upper band of the four-hour Bollinger Bands, and the moving averages have not yet widened, so the continuation of the rebound is not strong. Under this pressure, there is still a possibility of another pullback. However, the room for the pullback won’t be too large, because the six-hour Bollinger Bands already show signs of opening; but in terms of how far they can extend, there is not much room either. Therefore, the highest probability is that prices will range during dawn. For the early-morning session, you can look for range-bound movement.

In the upper area, around 822 to 825, near Kong; in the lower area, around 813 to 810, near Duo. First, watch for oscillation within this range. #比特币波动