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Recently, I feel that the market outlook has changed significantly. What I am particularly paying attention to is how much innovation assets are being excessively sold off. Honestly, the current environment is much better than during the dot-com bubble era. Back then, it was extremely frenzied.
I remember the time when Bitcoin was $250 in 2015. Its market cap at that time was only $6 billion. Now, it has become part of institutional investors' portfolios. This change is truly fascinating. Initially ridiculed, now even mega-banks like BlackRock are promoting a vision of "tokenizing everything." The financial world is about to undergo a major transformation.
The role of Bitcoin is also evolving. The rise of stablecoins, especially Tether and USDC, was really surprising. These are bridging traditional finance and DeFi. Thanks to regulatory delays, network effects have strengthened, resulting in a structure dominated by a few winners. Ironically, this is happening.
From a macro perspective, we are currently experiencing a wave of "mild disinflation." The cost of AI training has decreased by 75% annually, and inference costs have dropped between 85% and 95%. This could accelerate real GDP growth. The inflation rate is actually around 1.8%, and the Fed is highly likely to move toward monetary easing.
The correlation between gold and Bitcoin is surprisingly low (around 0.14), yet in past cycles, gold has led Bitcoin to rise. The same pattern is being observed now. Bitcoin has fallen 50%, but compared to past declines of 85% or 95%, this can already be considered a victory. In the basic scenario, I see it reaching $730k by 2030, and in a bullish scenario, $1.5 million.
The growth of the tokenized asset market is also noteworthy. It could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. Major blockchains (BTC, ETH, SOL, Hyperliquid) will benefit from this. The current Bitcoin price around $81,000 is just a waypoint.
I am focusing on five innovation platforms and the fusion of 15 technologies. The integration of AI and blockchain will bring about not just a change in the financial system but a revolution in machine-to-machine settlement. In an era where agent-based AI operates autonomously, it cannot exist without decentralized networks. In medical R&D, "autonomous labs" are emerging, driven by blockchain-based payments.
Institutional investor participation is also accelerating. Some are withdrawing from the market, but more investors are beginning to understand this new asset class. There was chaos like the flash crash in October, but that is part of the market maturation process. Currently, the market is at a bottoming phase, with multiple factors converging. As liquidity increases, I believe the next big boom is coming.