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The US-Iran situation is at a highly tense crossroads: diplomatic negotiations have stalled, but maritime military confrontations continue to escalate.
Three core developments
Iran's firm response: On May 10th, Iran formally rejected the US plan to end the war through Pakistan's mediation.
Trump's tough response: Trump quickly responded on social media, stating Iran's proposal is "completely unacceptable."
Military confrontation intensifies: Both sides continue military operations near the Strait of Hormuz.
On May 7th, the US military forcibly crossed the strait and was intercepted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard;
On the early morning of May 11th, a US commercial ship was attacked by an Iranian drone in the Persian Gulf;
At the same time, Iran's air defense forces shot down an enemy reconnaissance drone.
The significant gap in demands between the two sides is the fundamental reason for the deadlock.
Iran's core demands mainly focus on:
Sovereignty and compensation:
Demanding the US recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and pay war reparations.
Lifting sanctions:
Demanding the US fully lift all sanctions within 30 days and unfreeze seized assets.
Ceasefire and negotiations:
Requesting a permanent ceasefire and US military withdrawal before proceeding to the next phase of negotiations, including nuclear issues.
Israel:
Warns the UK and France not to intervene militarily, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states that US and Israeli military actions are not yet over.
The US plan and stance include:
Core requirements:
Iran must agree to a 15-20 year suspension of uranium enrichment activities and dismantle some nuclear facilities.
Negotiation prerequisites:
The White House insists that Iran make prior commitments on the final disposal of its nuclear program and high-enriched uranium reserves.
Military pressure:
Over 20 warships have been deployed to enforce a maritime blockade, requiring 61 commercial ships to change course, resulting in four ships losing navigation capability.
Latest developments and impacts:
Nuclear issue disputes:
Iran insists that all nuclear program discussions should be part of subsequent negotiations.
Iran currently holds high-enriched uranium reserves up to 60% purity and has proposed diluting some and transferring some to third countries, but only if the US returns to the agreement in the future.
However, Iran's officials deny reports of transferring enriched uranium and refuse US demands to dismantle nuclear facilities.
Energy market turmoil:
Due to the breakdown in negotiations, oil prices surged.
Brent crude futures once soared over 3%, breaking $104 per barrel.
International reactions:
Potential mediators:
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other countries are actively mediating, hoping to facilitate minimal understanding between the US and Iran.
Major powers' moves:
Trump plans to visit China from May 13th to 15th.
Iran issues are expected to be a key topic for US-China leaders, with the US possibly hoping China can leverage its influence on Iran to help reach an agreement.
Allied divisions:
France has stated it has "never considered" military deployment in the Strait of Hormuz.
The UK Ministry of Defence announced it would "pre-deploy" the HMS Daring destroyer to the Middle East.