#Gate广场五月交易分享 What recent news events have impacted the trends of gold and crude oil? How should the bullish or bearish outlook for gold be assessed in the near future?

On Monday (May 11), the market opened with a gap down, dropping nearly $50 to $4,670.26 per ounce, while crude oil (WTI) opened sharply higher, with a maximum increase of over 3.66%, reaching $98.85 per barrel. On the surface, this appears to be a tug-of-war effect triggered by geopolitical conflicts, but deeper down, it reflects a three-way struggle among global inflation expectations, the US dollar trend, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Short-term gold prices are under pressure, but geopolitical risks and shifts in Fed policy still support its medium- to long-term allocation value.
This week, US CPI data will be a key indicator.
Upcoming US April CPI and PPI data will be the focus this week. Additionally, the consumer confidence index has fallen to a historic low of 48.2 due to rising gasoline prices, reflecting the real drag of high oil prices on the real economy.
In the long run, if geopolitical conflicts cannot be quickly resolved, sustained high oil prices will continue to test global economic resilience and also provide potential safe-haven support for gold.

Last week, gold also rose on the weekly chart due to market optimism about US-Iran peace talks, with spot gold gaining a total of 2.15%, briefly closing near $4,715. However, after the situation reversed on Monday, gold quickly gapped down. This “expectation up, reality down” pattern highlights that gold currently behaves more like a “risk asset” rather than a traditional safe haven asset.
High oil prices directly push up global inflation expectations. Rising energy costs transmit to transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors, further intensifying market concerns that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or delay rate cuts. The US dollar index thus gains support, while non-yielding gold faces holding cost pressures.
Moreover, US April non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations (adding 115k jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.3%), reinforcing labor market resilience and reducing the likelihood of significant easing by the Fed this year. Analysts point out that gold’s current trading logic is highly tied to the easing prospects of Iran. When energy prices fall and inflation worries ease, rate cut expectations rebound, supporting gold; conversely, it faces selling pressure. The sharp decline in gold prices this week is a direct reflection of this logic.
Considering the current situation, gold will still face some short-term adjustment pressure. The risk premium caused by the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks flows more into oil and the dollar rather than gold. However, this divergence is not irreversible. Once substantial progress is made in a ceasefire, oil prices fall, or the Fed signals marginal easing, the rebound momentum for gold will quickly return.
From a longer-term perspective, geopolitical uncertainties, high global debt levels, and central bank gold-buying trends continue to support gold’s strategic allocation value. Although current prices have pulled back, as long as key support levels are maintained, there is still potential to find upward opportunities amid repeated risk events.
Overall, this gold price plunge results from a reversal of geopolitical conflict expectations combined with macroeconomic data resonance. Investors should closely monitor this week’s US inflation data, subsequent US-Iran statements, and potential diplomatic developments during Trump’s visit to China. For the gold market, short-term volatility will intensify, but the medium- to long-term logic remains intact.

May 11 Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Technical analysis of gold: The new week opened with a gap down in early trading, influenced by last Friday’s strong non-farm payroll data, keeping the dollar firm. Gold opened slightly lower and then experienced minor declines, maintaining a high-level oscillation with a slight weakness. Last Friday, gold closed near $4,715; this morning, it gapped down to around $4,700, then recovered slightly. Currently, the lowest retracement is around $4,680. Given last week’s weak closing, the opening shows that bullish momentum has weakened, and selling pressure is increasing.
From the daily chart, although gold rose for four consecutive days last week, breaking through the midline and testing the 100-day moving average twice, both times it was met with resistance and pulled back, indicating limited bullish strength. Indicators show MACD above zero with decreasing red momentum bars, suggesting waning bullish strength; KDJ formed a dead cross at high levels and is diverging downward, indicating a short-term correction is needed.
Above, the $4,750–$4,760 zone is a strong resistance area. If unable to stabilize above this range, bulls will struggle to regain control. Below, the $4,600 level is a key support. A close below this could trigger a new downward trend.

The 4-hour chart shows clear oscillation, with candlestick patterns mainly alternating between bullish and bearish signals, indicating balanced forces. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices near the middle band. The 5- and 10-period moving averages are converging downward. MACD shows a dead cross in the overbought zone with increasing green bars, suggesting a short-term bearish trend.
For intraday trading, consider short positions primarily. The gap at around $4,710–$4,715 from the morning session is a key level. Last week’s close was near $4,715, so a strategy could be to short at this level with a stop above $4,730 to avoid a gap fill and further decline. Wait for a rebound to fill the gap before considering new shorts. Currently, focus on whether the gap at $4,710–$4,715 will be filled; until then, avoid blindly shorting. The plan is to monitor the rebound and gap fill, then consider high short entries.
Overall, for today’s short-term trading, the recommendation is to mainly short on rebounds and buy on dips, with a focus on resistance at $4,710–$4,720 and support at $4,600–$4,580. Traders should strictly control position sizes and stop-losses, avoiding against-the-trend trades. Real-time levels are crucial; join us for live updates and market discussions.

May 11 Gold Trading Strategy Reference:

Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short on rebounds near $4,705–$4,715 in batches (buy dips), with a position size of 2/10, stop loss at $4,730, target around $4,650–$4,600, and a break below to $4,580.
(Note: This strategy is time-sensitive; further implementation suggestions will be announced internally to DingTalk real trading students.)

Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy on dips near $4,580–$4,590 in batches (buy rises), with a position size of 2/10, stop loss at $4,560, target around $4,620–$4,650, and a break above to $4,670.

Risk warning: All operations must strictly control position sizes and set stop-losses to prevent extreme market moves caused by unexpected events.