I've been paying close attention to this upcoming major event, and I feel the market might face an interesting liquidity diversion issue.

How big is SpaceX's initial public offering? $75 billion in funding, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If it truly goes public on time in June, it will be the biggest stock market debut in history, directly surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $17.5k. Polymarket traders have estimated this probability at around 65%.

But that's not the most terrifying part. OpenAI is also planning to go public in Q4 this year, with a valuation close to $1 trillion. Anthropic is coming in October, with funding possibly exceeding $60 billion. Together, these three giants are expected to absorb over $240 billion from now until the end of the year. How exaggerated is this number? PitchBook says it surpasses all venture-backed IPOs in the U.S. since 2000.

The problem here is: where is this money coming from? A large portion is being pulled from the same risk appetite liquidity pool that supports tech stocks, AI stocks, and the crypto market. Recently, cryptocurrencies have become increasingly correlated with Nasdaq and S&P 500 during these two cycles. When retail and institutional investors withdraw funds to participate in these IPOs, the money that previously pushed up high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum gets diverted.

There's a historical lesson worth pondering. Coinbase went public in April 2021, when Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $64,800 on the same day. And then? It dropped 50% within six weeks. Many saw Coinbase's IPO as a signal of crypto entering the mainstream, but milestones for institutions often mark the peak rather than the start. The funds chasing this milestone were the same funds that previously supported this asset.

SpaceX's IPO has two particularly noteworthy features. First, a 30% retail allocation, roughly $22 billion, which is three times the retail share in similar deals. Retail funds that might have gone into meme coins, altcoins, or Bitcoin are now flowing into SpaceX. Second, SpaceX itself holds 8,285 Bitcoin, worth about $600 million, stored on Coinbase Prime. This is the first IPO of a company disclosing a large Bitcoin holding under the new fair value accounting standards.

The signals ahead are crucial. During the roadshow in May and June, will cryptocurrencies stay stable? Or will they start to decline as asset allocators release space for these IPOs?

But there's an important point to note. If Bitcoin keeps rebounding, it suggests that spot ETF demand might have already detached cryptocurrencies from broader risk appetite capital flows. Coinbase's IPO in 2021 absorbed $86 billion in market value, but SpaceX isn't just a scaled-up version of Coinbase—it's a different kind of event. The market has learned lessons from the last IPO cycle over the past five years.

So the key question is: can the market truly learn from this time, or will it repeat the same mistakes? The answer should become clear in the market movements over the next few weeks.