Bitcoin has repeatedly been blocked near $79,000, and over the past two days it has fallen below $77,000 again. The whole market is waiting and watching. I looked at the charts: Bitcoin is now at 81.21K, and both Ethereum and Solana have also slipped. ETH against the dollar hasn’t seen much of an increase over the past two days, but based on updated data, it still shows some recovery. Other major coins are also performing average at best—aside from Dogecoin and TRON, which are holding up slightly, most are falling.

What’s interesting is that market views on this rebound are completely split into two camps. On one side, analysts at Galaxy Digital say that both retail investors and institutions have returned, spot demand is strong, and large holders have accumulated more than 40,000 Bitcoins within two weeks. Market sentiment has quickly shifted from fear to being afraid to miss out. On the other side, the founder of CryptoQuant believes this is mainly caused by short covering in the derivatives market, and that real spot demand isn’t actually that strong. I think both scenarios may be happening at the same time—the key is whether new spot buying will come in when the price revisits this level.

This week has two major events that could change the situation. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision, and market expectations for rate cuts are increasing. At the same time, tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will report earnings on Wednesday, and Apple will report on Thursday. These companies account for one quarter of the market value of the S&P 500. If these catalysts are strong enough, Bitcoin could break above the $80,000 mark, and ETH against the dollar should benefit as well. Conversely, if there aren’t such positives, the current price could simply be the top of this range.

Also, there’s one more detail: oil prices have been rising over the past two days as well. Brent crude has broken above $109 and has now climbed for seven straight days, mainly due to uncertainty in the Middle East. This correlation between risk assets can also affect the crypto market. Right now, we just need to wait and see what the data this week says—whether ETH against the dollar and Bitcoin can hold this level.