#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin rises sharply then pulls back; this week, our key analysis points

The overall market shows a pattern of oscillation with a slight weakness; Bitcoin repeatedly struggles around the $80k mark, while Ethereum is like a subordinate follower, with clear lack of confidence.
1. What’s being discussed in the circle today: three keywords
First keyword: Prescription or empty promise? — The regulatory bill will be clear on Thursday
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will review the "Clarity Act" on May 14th (this Thursday), aiming to clarify who regulates whom and how the SEC and CFTC share authority. Once the news broke, market predictions of the bill passing jumped directly to a 55% to 69% probability. But behind the bill are intense interests — banks fear losing money, the crypto community wants rules but not overly strict ones, plus ethical clauses blocking Trump’s crypto businesses, making the outcome uncertain.
Second keyword: Money is coming but people aren’t here yet — conflicting signals from funds
On-chain data shows that in the past week, $2.25 billion in stablecoins flooded in, a solid "ammunition" stockpile outside. Over the past three months, major exchanges Binance, OKX, and Gemini have withdrawn nearly 100k Bitcoin, over $8 billion, as large investors quietly "stockpile," with a large withdrawal of 1,051 BTC from Binance directly interpreted as institutions moving away from exchanges for long-term holding.
But on the flip side, American spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $268.5 million on May 8th, with Fidelity withdrawing $129 million and BlackRock $98 million, forming a strange divergence from the continuous inflow.
Ethereum also suffered; a mysterious address dumped 8,771 ETH, nearly $20 million worth of sell pressure, shaking the market’s confidence.
Third keyword: No more rate cut talk — macro environment is suffocating
On April 29th, the Fed’s FOMC meeting kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, which was not surprising, but the voting result was 8 to 4, the highest opposition since 1992. Internal disagreements are so intense that short-term rate cut hopes are basically shattered. Worse, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to only 94.9%, indicating a long-term "breathless" macro environment. Trump’s nominee for the new Fed chair, Kevin Woor, is about to take office, and his hawkish stance could further dampen the crypto market. Plus, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices above $100, making the outlook for risk assets even more uncertain.
2. Bitcoin (BTC): The $80k defense battle continues, contracts need a stop-loss "script"
Technical analysis:
Today, Bitcoin’s daily high touched $82,460, but twice it was pushed back after reaching above $82,000. The 200-day moving average and descending trendline just around $82,000–$83,800 form a "tight band," and since January 2026, it has never closed above this zone. The real support for ETF institutions is around $75,000. On May 8th, there was a slight dip, but large investors bought back near $80,000, proving this psychological level is still alive for now.
Macro + fund summary:
Whales are clearly defending their longs, but it’s more passive "receiving" rather than active attack; ETF data fluctuates; stablecoins are flowing out but haven’t entered the market; geopolitical pressures are significant, overall sentiment is neutral but funds are cautious. If Thursday’s Clear bill review brings good news, there might be a short-term rally, but the main positive expectations have already been priced in previous gains.
Short-term contract trading suggestions:
Long opportunities:
Entry zone: around $79,600–$80,000 (retest and stabilize on the 30-minute chart)
Take profit: around $81,500 (close near resistance zone)
Stop loss: below $78,800 (exit if broken)
Short opportunities:
Entry zone: around $82,000–$82,500
Take profit: $79,500–$79,800 zone
Stop loss: strictly exit above $83,000