$2.29 TON, do you still want it?

Whales just left, massive unlocks coming next week. A 116% surge a week ago, the whole network shouting “1 billion users coming,” now a 7% pullback to 2.29, RSI dropping straight to 27-37, MACD deep in negative territory. Telegram founder just announced control of 25% validation rights, community starts panicking “centralization.”

First look at the surface: after the surge, the correction hurts.

In the past 7 days, up 116%, 30 days up 75%, market cap hit $6.1 billion, ranking in the top 20. The candlestick chart shows: breaking out of the 1.3-1.8 USD four-month consolidation zone, volume surged to push to 2.49, now retracing to 2.29—looks like a normal technical correction, but RSI is already near oversold.

First thing: Telegram has welded TON onto itself.

May 6-10, Durov officially announced: Telegram becomes TON’s largest validator, staking 2.2 million TON, controlling about 25% validation rights. TON officially becomes the exclusive underlying blockchain for Mini Apps functionality, TON Connect becomes the only wallet protocol.

1 billion Telegram users will play with mini programs, payments, gaming—bottom layer all TON.

Market reaction: single-day surge of 36%, doubling in 7 days.

Second thing: the ecosystem is really landing.

After Catchain 2.0 upgrade, block time compressed to 400ms, approaching instant confirmation. Mini Apps experience went from laggy to native-level, costs nearly zero. TVL surged 61% to $94 million, protocols like STONfi are farming high APR.

USDT on TON, TON Pay 2.0, NFTs, storage—an ecosystem is forming.

TON doesn’t need to attract new traffic; users are just lying in Telegram.

Third thing: technical and capital signals flashing two red lights

First: RSI dropped from overbought to 27-37, which is oversold territory, but MACD is deeply negative, indicating ongoing bearish momentum.

Second: $86.77 million worth of tokens to unlock next week.*

On one side:

- Telegram’s exclusive binding, entrance to 1 billion users

- Catchain 2.0 performance outperforms, ecosystem TVL skyrocketing

- 116% increase in 7 days, trend has reversed

- Correction with decreasing volume, technically a healthy shakeout

On the other side:

- Over $86 million worth of tokens unlocking next week, explosive sell pressure

- RSI 27-37, MACD deep negative, short-term still weak

- Centralization concerns: Telegram dominates alone

- Whales outflow of $2.9 million in 4 hours, risk-off mode activated

Key support at 2.20-2.28, the last line of defense for bulls and bears.

Resistance above: 2.40-2.50 (recent high) → 3.0-3.5

Support below: 2.20-2.28 (former resistance now support) → 2.05 (stop-loss line)

Short-term traders:

Wait for the 2.20-2.28 range to buy in batches, stop-loss at 2.05 (run if broken), first target 2.50, second target 3.0.

Swing traders:

Wait until daily closes above 2.40 again, use 2.20 as defense, target 3.0-3.5. Before next week’s unlock news lands, don’t hold too heavy.

Long-term believers:

Start dollar-cost averaging below 2.20. Telegram narrative is the most scarce traffic story in 2026, expected to reach $4.5-6.5 by end of 2026.

TON now is like SOL in 2021—$TON $BTC

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