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The Bitcoin outlook turned out to be short. Yesterday, the token jumped to $68k amid news from Iran, but everything reversed with the opening of trading on Monday. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $66.7K, having lost about 1% over the past 24 hours. Cryptocurrency is essentially a reflection of sentiment in traditional markets, and yesterday they were in panic.
Apparently, the conflict between the US and Iran turned out to be more serious than the crypto market expected. Oil surged by 6.4% — the biggest jump since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. Asian stocks fell by 1.4%, gold rose to $5,350 per ounce. Against this backdrop, all crypto assets declined along with risky assets. Ether dropped 2.5% to $1,967, Solana lost 4.1% to $84, XRP retreated 3.6% to $1.36.
Interestingly, cryptocurrency is not just a speculative asset — it reacts to inflation expectations. Rising energy prices may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, which puts pressure on all risk assets. But the question is: how serious will this be? Some traders believe the decline could be limited. Iran has long been cut off from global finance, and OPEC and the US may compensate for oil losses. If the Strait opens quickly and negotiations begin, then crypto is just a temporary correction, not a long-term downtrend.
There is no clarity yet; the market is behaving nervously. On Monday, conflicting signals appeared: The Wall Street Journal reported on new negotiations, while an Iranian official stated there would be no negotiations. Trump said airstrikes would continue but then allegedly agreed to dialogue. All this creates uncertainty. Cryptocurrency is an asset that does not like such uncertainty, so it is trading cautiously.
I also noticed that MicroStrategy last week bought 535 bitcoins for $43 million at a price of $80,340 per coin. The company has already spent about $61.8 billion on Bitcoin at an average price of $75,540. MSTR shares rose 1% in pre-market trading. It seems that large players are not panicking and continue accumulating. This could be a sign that they see the bottom closer than the market.