Bitcoin is hovering around $81,000 this week, but something doesn't add up with this rally. The spot ETF flows in the United States have brought in real institutional money, close to $2.7 billion in the last three weeks, which explains part of the movement. But when I look at on-chain data, I see that spot demand continues to contract while perpetual futures are the ones pushing the price upward. That is, fast and leveraged money is doing the heavy lifting.

Market makers recently reported that there is growing interest in expanding leveraged long positions, especially in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The problem is that historically, when leverage flows expand but actual buying does not, those gains tend to reverse quickly once the positioning is unwound. That’s not a good sign.

Prediction markets also see it this way. The probability of reaching $85,000 is decent (56%), but the chance of breaking toward $90,000 is low (23%). This suggests that the market expects a gradual advance but without real conviction. The movement remains fragile and sensitive to any change in flows or slowdown in entries. Interesting to watch, but it’s not the kind of breakout that gives you confidence.