#Gate广场五月交易分享

Bull to Bear! Characteristics and Trading Strategies in the Early Stage of a Bull Market
As Sunday’s remaining quota gradually decreases, Bitcoin closing this week above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is basically a certainty, which is often considered a signal that the bear market has ended and the market is turning bullish. So, what are the characteristics of the early stage of a bull market? How should we operate? Let’s talk about it today.
1. Core Characteristics of the Early Stage of a Bull Market
1. Subtle Shift in Market Sentiment
Despair → Doubt → Testing: The “zeroing theory” on social media is gradually being replaced by discussions of “bottom fishing,” bullish voices are beginning to emerge, but most people are still under the shadow of the bear market.
Smart money quietly positioning: Institutions and seasoned investors are taking the lead, on-chain data shows whale addresses continuously increasing their holdings, while retail funds still show hesitation.
2. Price Trend Bottoming Signals
Gradual higher lows: Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are no longer making new lows, forming a bullish structure of “high point breakout, low point support” on the daily chart.
Resilience of sharp rebounds: Sudden negative news causing declines can be quickly recovered within 24-48 hours, indicating that buying power is accumulating.
3. Early Signs of Liquidity Recovery
Expansion of stablecoin pools: USDT and USDC market cap growth rate exceeds 3% monthly, stablecoin balances on exchanges hit a six-month high.
DeFi protocols “spring water warms”: Leading lending protocols (such as Aave, Compound) deposit interest rates bottoming out and rising again, indicating funds are starting to seek yields.
4. Fundamental Catalysts Emerging
Halving cycle approaching: Bitcoin halving countdown has started, historical data shows that a 3-6 month period before halving usually begins an upward trend.
Regulatory breakthroughs: New licenses issued in Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., and US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows turning positive.
2. Trading Strategies in the Early Stage of a Bull Market
1. Asset Selection: Focus on Core and Potential Tracks
Anchor assets (60%): Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets with strong consensus and liquidity, historically showing stable and leading gains in the early bull phase.
Innovative tracks (30%): New narratives like AI + blockchain, RWA (Real World Assets), DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure), such as $RNDR, $ONDO.
Strictly avoid traps: Projects with market cap < $100 million, anonymous teams, or token unlocks concentrated risks.
2. Position Management: Pyramid-style Gradual Building
Bottoming phase:
Dollar-cost averaging into core assets
Position ≤ 30%
Breakout confirmation:
Add positions on breakout of 200-day moving average
Position increases to 50%
Trend formation:
Allocate to high Beta tracks
Position ≤ 70%
Keep 30% cash for black swan events
3. Dynamic Take-Profit: Mechanical Profit Lock-in
Three-tier take-profit method:
First target (+50%): Sell 1/3 of the position to recover principal
Second target (+100%): Sell another 1/3 to lock in profits
Remaining position aims for excess gains; sell completely if price falls below the 30-day moving average
4. Mindset Control: Avoid Emotional Trading
Reduce monitoring frequency: Check market ≤ 3 times per day to avoid being disturbed by minute-level fluctuations.
Establish an operation checklist:
[ ] Does it meet the preset buy conditions?
[ ] Is the position exceeding risk thresholds?
[ ] Are take-profit/stop-loss points updated?
5. Information Filtering: Focus on Key Data Sources
On-chain monitoring: Whale holdings changes on Glassnode, exchange net outflows on Santiment.
Policy tracking: Federal Reserve rate decisions, SEC regulatory updates, CBDC developments in major countries.
Technical indicators: Weekly RSI (preferably between 30-50), Bitcoin dominance (breakthrough of 45% indicates altcoin season approaching).