Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: the movement of Bitcoin and the US dollar index are almost completely inverse, a situation I haven't seen in over four years.

According to data, the 30-day correlation coefficient between the two has dropped to -0.90, the lowest since 2022. What does this mean? It indicates that approximately 81% of Bitcoin's short-term volatility is statistically correlated with the movements of the US dollar index. Simply put, when the dollar is strong, Bitcoin tends to be weak; when the dollar is weak, Bitcoin tends to be strong.

During this period, the dollar has been rebounding, rising from 97.63 in mid-April to 98.75, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns. Meanwhile, although Bitcoin previously broke through $79,000, it has since stalled somewhat. While several major exchanges have seen continuous inflows into spot ETFs, large holders and long-term investors in the market seem to be selling into this demand, resulting in insufficient rebound momentum.

Some analysts mention that rising oil prices and transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz are maintaining inflation expectations, which act as resistance to the rise of cryptocurrencies. The founder of SkyBridge believes that a meaningful Bitcoin rebound may not occur until the second half of this year.

Another noteworthy signal is the performance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen nearly 3% this week, hitting a new low since mid-March, indicating that Ethereum is clearly underperforming Bitcoin in this rally. From a technical perspective, this ratio has broken below the previous upward channel and returned below a broader downtrend line, signaling short-term bearishness.