$9.8 for $ETC , do you want to bet on a reduction in supply trend?

Mining costs are about to skyrocket, but hash rate is still stubbornly holding at 190TH/s.
Olympia upgrade has been announced for half a year, yet on-chain TVL is still less than a dog project.
The 6-period RSI plummeted from 90 to 36, and buy volume was cut in half in 12 hours—
Is this the golden opportunity before the halving, or the last chance for old coins to ship out?
First, look at the surface: halving narrative, history repeating
From July to October 2026, ETC will experience its fifth “Fifthening,”
block rewards will drop from 2.048 to 1.6384 ETC, a 20% reduction.
In the past four halvings, which one didn’t rebound?
Which one wasn’t miner-led to save themselves?
Since forming a large box after the 2025 low, it’s now gathering strength near 9.8,
with the 5/10 line crossing upward, MACD about to form a golden cross:
Positioning before the halving, lying in wait to win.
First thing: halving is real, but don’t rely on history alone
ECIP-1017 deflation mechanism, reducing 20% every 5 million blocks, this is the fifth cut.
Post-halving, miner costs rise, theoretically supply decreases and prices should go up.
But ETC’s hash rate has fallen from a high of 240TH/s in 2025 to 190 now,
miners themselves lack confidence.
Second thing: Olympia upgrade sounds great
EIP-1559 dynamic Gas, on-chain treasury, DAO governance—this is ETC’s biggest protocol upgrade in history.
Sounds like they’re planning something, right?
But ETC’s on-chain TVL is less than $50 million,
daily active addresses are fewer than a PEPE meme.
Developers? None.
Ecosystem? Empty.
Third thing: a deadly technical signal has appeared
In the past 12 hours, the 6-period RSI dropped from 90.08 directly to 36.88.
90 is extreme overbought, the peak of chasing highs;
36 is near oversold, exhausted buy volume, and the movers have already run away.
Key level: 9.8, the boundary between faith and rationality.
Resistance above: 10.00-10.50 (repeated resistance) → 11-12 → 15 (optimistic target before halving)
Support below: 9.00-8.50 (strong support) → 8.00 (the life-and-death line for bulls, break below means invalid)
Short-term bet on halving:
Pull back to 9.0-9.2 then buy in, stop-loss at 8.50 (immediate exit if broken),
target half at 10.5, sell half first.
Break above 10.50 with volume, can chase, stop-loss at 9.80, aiming for 12-13.
Swing traders:
Buy low and sell high within the box—
above 10.2 reduce positions, below 9.0 add positions.
Three months before halving, leverage can be increased appropriately.
Long-term believers:
Forget it. ETC is not BTC, not ETH.
Its biggest value is “telling newcomers: this is an old coin forked from Ethereum.”
Want to hold long-term? Better buy SOL.