ETC at $9.8, do you want to bet on its halving rally?

Mining costs are about to soar, but hash rate is still stubbornly holding at 190TH/s. Olympia upgrade has been announced for half a year, yet on-chain TVL is still less than a typical Aptos meme project. Just now, the 6-period RSI plummeted from 90 to 36, and buy volume was cut in half in 12 hours—this wave is either the “last golden opportunity before the halving” or the “final dump by old coins.”

First, look at the surface: halving narrative, history repeating.

From July to October 2026, ETC will experience its fifth “Fifthening,” with block rewards dropping from 2.048 to 1.6384 ETC, a 20% reduction. In the past four halvings, which one didn’t rebound? Which one wasn’t a miner-led rescue rally? The candlestick chart shows: since the 2025 low, a large consolidation zone has formed, now building momentum near 9.8, with the 5/10-day moving averages crossing upward, and MACD approaching a bullish crossover: positioning before the halving, lying in wait.

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First thing: halving is real, but don’t rely on history as your meal.

ECIP-1017 deflationary mechanism reduces supply by 20% every 5 million blocks, and this is the fifth cut. After halving, miners’ costs rise, and theoretically, supply decreases, so prices should go up.

But ETC’s hash rate has fallen from a high of 240TH/s in 2025 to the current 190, and miners themselves lack confidence. Do you expect them to cut production and then push the price higher?

Second thing: Olympia upgrade sounds great.

EIP-1559 dynamic Gas, on-chain treasury, DAO governance—this is ETC’s biggest protocol upgrade in history. Sounds like they’re about to do something big, right?

But check DefiLlama—ETC’s on-chain TVL is less than $50 million, and daily active addresses are fewer than a PEPE meme. Developers? None. Ecosystem? Empty.

Third thing: a deadly technical signal has appeared.

In the past 12 hours, the 6-period RSI dropped from 90.08 straight down to 36.88. 90 indicates extreme overbought, the peak where retail traders chase high; 36 is near oversold, exhausted buy volume, and the people pushing the price are already gone.

On one side:

Fifth halving, historical narrative

Olympia upgrade, EIP-1559 implemented

Strong support at the bottom of the box at 9.0

MACD approaching a bullish crossover, short-term bullish

On the other side:

RSI from 90 to 36, buy volume halved in 12 hours

Hash rate continues to decline, miner confidence wanes

Ecosystem nearly zero, TVL under $50 million

Institutions don’t hold it, liquidity is poor

Key level at 9.8, the boundary between faith and reason.

Resistance above: 10.00-10.50 (repeatedly blocked) → 11-12 → 15 (optimistic target before halving)

Support below: 9.00-8.50 (strong support) → 8.00 (the critical line for bulls and bears, break below means invalid)

Short-term bet on halving rally:

Wait for a pullback to 9.0-9.2 to buy in, stop-loss at 8.50 (sell immediately if it drops below), target half at 10.5. If it breaks through 10.50 with volume, chase; stop-loss at 9.80, aiming for 12-13.

Swing traders:

Buy low and sell high within the range—reduce positions above 10.2, add on dips below 9.0. Consider increasing leverage three months before halving.

Long-term believers:

Forget it. ETC isn’t BTC, isn’t ETH. Its biggest value is “telling newcomers: this is an old coin forked from Ethereum.” Want to hold it long-term? Better buy SOL.

ETC now is like LTC in 2023—

Everyone shouted for a rally before the halving, but after, it’s a mess. History repeats, but retail traders never learn.

ETC at $9.8, are you betting on the halving pump, or betting that you can run faster than others? #Gate广场五月交易分享 $BTC $ETH $ETC