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I just took a look at the market, and Bitcoin is a bit interesting this week. It surged to $81,500 midweek, but in the past couple of days, it has fallen back to the low $80,000s, mainly because tensions between the US and Iran have escalated again. When Middle East issues arise, the market tends to become cautious. However, Bitcoin still gained on the weekly chart, indicating that the overall trend hasn't changed.
The most intriguing aspect is the funding rate. Bitcoin's funding rate has been negative for 67 consecutive days, the longest in the past decade. Simply put, short sellers have been losing money continuously, and to maintain their short positions, they have to pay longs every day. Once Bitcoin breaks through the technical level of $83,200, short positions will need to be massively liquidated, leading to a squeeze. Some analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin could surge to $93,000, but only if it first surpasses this critical point.
Currently, market sentiment is somewhat complex. Technically, Bitcoin's RSI has entered overbought territory, which has historically led to pullbacks. Meanwhile, options traders are still buying put options to hedge risks, indicating that while many are bullish, they are also defensive. Dogecoin performed the worst, dropping nearly 2% this week. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Ripple have also pulled back, but Solana is still rising.
Overall, the bullish signals for Bitcoin are strong (it's rare to see such a long negative funding rate), but in the short term, it depends on whether it can hold above $83,200. If it can break through this level, the upside potential will open up.