U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse Ignites the Market: Oil Prices Near the $100 Mark, Risk-Hedging Logic Shifts

Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran negotiations have delivered clear signals of a breakdown. Trump said Iran’s response to the peace plan was “unacceptable,” and Iranian media later confirmed that they have officially rejected the U.S. proposal, leaving both sides locked in a standoff. The moment the news broke, global financial markets responded rapidly, with geopolitical risks directly rewriting short-term pricing logic.

The energy market was hit first. WTI crude oil opened up more than 3% and once again moved back toward the $100 level, as concerns about the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept intensifying. As a critical global oil transportation corridor, tensions in the strait directly disrupt the energy supply chain. Behind the sharp jump in oil prices is panic-driven pricing for potential supply disruptions, which also lifts expectations for an inflation rebound once again.

In contrast to the surge in oil prices, spot gold unexpectedly came under pressure, while U.S. stock futures edged down by about 0.3%. This abnormal pattern is driven by inflation expectations boosted by high oil prices, forcing market bets on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting pace to be pushed back. Upward pressure on real interest rates has weighed on gold’s appeal as a safe haven, while U.S. equities face profit-taking amid dual uncertainties of inflation and geopolitics.

The market is currently switching from an optimistic outlook of “negotiations cooling” to a risk mode of “conflict escalating.” If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the second half of the year, the global energy market will face sustained pressure. The tug-of-war between inflation stickiness and policy shifts will become the main theme in the market, and investors should be alert to amplified volatility caused by repeated geopolitical developments.#特朗普5月13日访华 #Polymarket每日热点