#Gate广场五月交易分享

Bull to Bear! Characteristics and Trading Strategies in the Early Stage of a Bull Market
As Sunday’s remaining quota gradually decreases, Bitcoin closing this week above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is basically a foregone conclusion, which is often considered a signal that the bear market has ended and the market is turning bullish. So, what are the characteristics of the early stage of a bull market? How should we operate? Let’s talk about it today.
1. Core Characteristics of the Early Stage of a Bull Market
1. Subtle Shift in Market Sentiment
Despair → Doubt → Testing: The “zeroing theory” on social media is gradually being replaced by discussions of “bottom fishing,” bullish voices are beginning to emerge, but most people are still under the shadow of the bear market.
Smart money quietly positioning: Institutions and seasoned investors act first, on-chain data shows giant whale addresses continuously increasing holdings, while retail funds still hesitate to flow in.
2. Price Trend Bottoming Signals
Gradually rising lows: Core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum no longer hit new lows, forming a bullish structure of “highs breaking through, lows supporting” on the daily chart.
Resilience of sharp rebounds increases: Sudden negative news causing declines can be quickly recovered within 24-48 hours, indicating that buying power has accumulated.
3. Early Signs of Liquidity Recovery
Stablecoin pools expanding: USDT and USDC market cap growth rate exceeds 3% monthly, exchange stablecoin balances hit a six-month high.
DeFi protocols “spring water warms”: Leading lending protocols (like Aave, Compound) deposit interest rates bottoming out and rising again, indicating funds are seeking yields.
4. Fundamental Catalysts Emerging
Halving cycle approaching: Bitcoin’s block reward halving countdown begins, historical data shows a 3-6 month period before halving usually marks the start of an upward trend.
Regulatory breakthroughs: New licenses issued in Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., and US Bitcoin spot ETF funds turning positive on weekly inflows.
2. Trading Strategies in the Early Stage of a Bull Market
1. Asset Selection: Focus on Core and Potential Tracks
Anchor assets (60%): Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets with strong consensus and liquidity, historically showing stable and leading gains in early bull phases.
Innovative tracks (30%): New narratives like AI + blockchain, RWA (Real World Assets), DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure), such as $RNDR, $ONDO.
Strictly avoid traps: Projects with market cap < $100 million, anonymous teams, or highly concentrated token unlock risks.
2. Position Management: Pyramid-style Incremental Building
Bottoming phase:
Dollar-cost averaging into core assets
Position ≤ 30%
Breakout confirmation:
Add positions on突破200-day moving average assets
Position increases to 50%
Trend formation:
Allocate to high Beta sectors
Position ≤ 70%
Keep 30% cash for black swan events
3. Dynamic Take-Profit: Mechanical Profit Lock-in
Three-tier take-profit method:
First target (+50%): Sell 1/3 of the position to recover principal
Second target (+100%): Sell another 1/3 to lock in profits
Remaining position aims for excess gains, exit entirely if price falls below 30-day moving average
4. Mindset Control: Avoid Emotional Trading
Reduce monitoring frequency: Check market ≤ 3 times per day to avoid being disturbed by minute-level fluctuations.
Establish an operation checklist:
[ ] Does it meet the preset buy conditions?
[ ] Is the position exceeding risk thresholds?
[ ] Are take-profit/stop-loss points updated?
5. Information Filtering: Focus on Key Data Sources
On-chain monitoring: Glassnode whale holdings changes, Santiment exchange net outflows.
Policy tracking: Federal Reserve rate decisions, SEC regulatory updates, CBDC developments in major countries.
Technical indicators: Weekly RSI (preferably between 30-50), BTC dominance (breaking 45% indicates altcoin season approaching).