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Bitcoin's current key resistance level is around 83.2k yuan. At this point, it’s no longer just an ordinary resistance level; it’s more like the "graduation exam" for this round of rebound channel. Previously, BTC climbed slowly along the upward channel from the 60k yuan area after a sharp decline. Although there was some hesitation in the middle, the overall structure is quite healthy. The lows are continuously rising, and the highs are gradually moving upward, indicating that funds haven't truly exited but are repeatedly rotating within the consolidation. Especially recently, the price has been hugging the upper edge of the channel, suggesting that market sentiment has shifted from "fear that the rebound has ended" to "should I chase the rally." But the problem is, it’s now stuck at a major previous resistance level, around 83,200 yuan in the chart. Because this isn’t just a simple technical resistance; it’s a confluence of "historical trapped positions + psychological barrier + trend upper boundary." Simply put: there are a group of people who got caught at high levels last year standing above this point. Now that BTC has finally risen back, their first reaction isn’t “bulls are back,” but “thank goodness I can finally get out of my position.” The overall structure currently looks like “bulls controlling the scene, but hesitant to charge.” From a technical indicator perspective, the bullish structure isn’t broken yet. As long as it doesn’t effectively fall below the 77k-78k yuan zone, the overall rebound structure remains intact. So now, it’s about whether it can hold above 79k yuan. There’s also a very critical detail: during this rally, BTC’s pullbacks have become shallower. But if it can’t break through for several consecutive days, it’s likely to return to within the channel for further consolidation, or even retest support at 75k-77k yuan. Essentially, the current market isn’t a bear market, nor is it a true bull frenzy; it’s more like “pre-bull night mutual testing,” with bears hesitant to attack aggressively and bulls cautious about fully committing.
Short-term reference: short 80,900-81,300, target 78,900.