5.11 Crude Oil Market Outlook by Shiyuan

Today’s surge driven mainly by - core drivers:
1. US-Iran negotiations break down, geopolitical risks soar
Trump states Iran’s plan is “unacceptable,” Iran rejects US proposals, the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz fails, one-third of global oil transportation routes remain restricted, and risk premiums directly push up oil prices.
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2. Tight supply and demand conditions
US crude oil inventories are low, OPEC+ production cuts remain in effect, UAE’s “withdrawal from the group” and increased output are medium- to long-term expectations, short-term supply gaps are hard to fill, supporting high oil prices.
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3. Technical breakout and strength
WTI stabilizes above the key level of 98 dollars, Brent surpasses 104 dollars, bullish trend continues, and market actively pushes prices higher.

Crude Oil Trading Recommendations:
1. Intraday bullish momentum is strong, geopolitical support is clear, prioritize trading with the trend on dips, avoid blindly guessing tops.
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2. Rebound to stabilize around 97.0-97.5, go long with stops below 95.5, target 99.5-100.0.
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3. If above 100.0 faces resistance, consider light short positions with stops above 102.5, target back to 98.0-97.0.
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