Middle East Situation Brief | May 11

Iran officially submitted a written response to the U.S. latest peace proposal on May 10, after a week of waiting in the United States. Although Iran described its stance as "pragmatic and positive," focusing mainly on fully ending regional wars and the passage arrangements of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump publicly rejected the response, accusing Iran of "delaying" for decades. Multiple drone attack reports also emerged over the Gulf, damaging commercial ships, further eroding regional trust. Negotiations and attacks are simultaneously ongoing during a fractured ceasefire, with the fragile truce once again under heavy pressure.
1. U.S.-Iran Game: Written response delivered, Trump immediately rejects
Since the U.S. delivered a one-page memorandum of understanding to Iran via Pakistan last week, the U.S. initially expected Iran to respond by May 8. After several days of delay, Iran finally officially submitted a written response through Pakistan on May 10, detailing its demands.
Trump had earlier on the 10th stated he was waiting for Iran’s reply and claimed "Iran very much hopes to reach an agreement." However, later that day, he expressed dissatisfaction on social media, criticizing Iran’s Islamic Republic for "playing tricks" with "delays" and "waiting" for 47 years, and said the response "does not make sense" and "I do not accept this reply." On the same day, he confirmed a "very harmonious" phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, emphasizing that Iran negotiations are led by the U.S. and that other countries "have no say."
2. Iran’s Conditions for Ending the War: Ceasefire first, nuclear issues later
Iran’s characterization of its response sharply contrasts with the U.S. current pursuit of a "nuclear first, ships later" approach. Iranian official media and informed sources revealed that Iran’s core message focuses on "ending all wars on all fronts, especially in Lebanon," while ensuring "maritime security in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz."
Iran proposes: The current negotiation phase should completely halt all hostile actions in the region, excluding nuclear issues and strategic arrangements; agree to a temporary Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that includes a ceasefire and resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a 30-day window for formal negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and other long-term disputes. Iran is willing to suspend uranium enrichment but rejects the U.S. demand for a 20-year freeze and will not dismantle its nuclear facilities. Regarding highly enriched uranium, Iran proposes diluting some and transferring the rest to third countries, with a guarantee mechanism: if negotiations break down or the U.S. withdraws, the transferred uranium must be returned to Iran.
Iranian President Raisi also emphasized: "Talking or negotiating does not mean surrender or retreat."
On sanctions, Iran explicitly demands the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to lift sanctions related to Iran’s oil sales within 30 days and establish a clear, guaranteed mechanism for the comprehensive lifting of all sanctions.
A spokesperson for Iran’s National Security Council also issued a tough statement: "From today, our restraint has ended. Any actions that appear to attack our ships will trigger decisive and strong responses."
3. Hormuz and the Gulf: Shipping lanes loosen, drone attacks resume
On the eve of Iran’s response, a Qatar LNG (liquefied natural gas) tanker, with special permission, crossed the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman on Saturday, heading toward Pakistan. It is the first Qatar gas ship to pass through the strait since the outbreak of hostilities, using Iran’s newly activated alternative route. On the same day, a Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier also used Iran’s designated route through the strait. Iran sent signals of building mutual trust to Qatar and Pakistan, who are mediating.
However, reports of attacks at sea also emerged on the same day.
· South Korean ship attacked: South Korea’s Defense Ministry reported that the cargo ship "Namu" was attacked by "two unidentified flying objects" in the strait on May 4, with hits at the stern waterline, causing a fire.
· Commercial ship off Qatar: A cargo ship departing from Abu Dhabi, UAE, was attacked by a drone in Qatari waters, causing a small fire. No casualties, but the attack’s sensitivity increased due to the American flag it flies.
· UAE air defense alert: The UAE Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted two drones flying from Iran and condemned "Iran for launching attacks."
· Kuwait airspace warning: Kuwaiti military detected multiple "hostile" aircraft entering its airspace early on the 10th and responded according to established procedures.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abadi warned France and the UK about deploying ships near the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that "such actions only escalate the crisis and further militarize this vital waterway," and cannot truly improve security.
4. International Mediation: U.S. officials meet Qatar’s Prime Minister in Miami, multiple countries push for reconciliation
Diplomatic efforts continue. On May 9, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, held intensive meetings in Miami with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Presidential Envoy Wittekov, lasting nearly an hour, aiming to ensure the U.S. and Iran reach a memorandum of understanding. During his stay in Miami, Mohammed also spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister — Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are coordinating intensively to promote de-escalation and a final agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
5. Allies shift stance: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait relax access to U.S. military bases and airspace
Around May 7, Saudi Arabia refused U.S. military use of its Prince Sultan Air Base and airspace without prior coordination, temporarily frustrating the "Freedom of Navigation" operations in the Strait of Hormuz launched by Trump. However, subsequent adjustments on May 8 showed that Saudi and Kuwait had recently lifted restrictions on U.S. military use of their bases and airspace, allowing the U.S. to resume operations.
This move by Saudi is seen as a diplomatic rebalancing: avoiding a complete blockade that could harm long-term alliances, while demonstrating willingness to re-engage support after dialogue progresses.
Recently, the U.S. State Department announced continued large-scale arms sales to the Middle East, including missile interceptors and weapons to Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, totaling $25.8 billion, and sanctions on 11 entities and 3 individuals involved in Iran’s weapons procurement chain. Among them, three Chinese mainland companies were sanctioned for providing satellite data to Iran to support attacks on U.S. bases.
U.S. Central Command also updated the level of maritime blockade: deploying over 20 U.S. warships enforcing a naval blockade in the Persian Gulf targeting Iran, with 61 merchant ships rerouted and four commercial vessels deprived of navigation for non-compliance.
Additionally, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met with the Armed Forces Commander Abdolahi, receiving "new operational directives and guidance," indicating that Iran’s armed forces have not relaxed post-war vigilance.
Summary
On May 11, the U.S. and Iran exchanged bottom-line lists at the negotiation table, but both sides insist on different sequences and prerequisites for ending the war. Iran refuses to make "nuclear compliance" a precondition for ceasefire, insisting on ending regional offensives first before discussing subsequent issues. The continuous passing of unidentified drones and attacks on ships over the Gulf reveal that trust remains fragile during negotiations. The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East is swinging more intensely between diplomatic channels and low-intensity conflicts, moment by moment.
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