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The US and Iran have once again "broken off talks"; what is the potential impact on the market?

After Trump stated on May 10th that Iran's response was "completely unacceptable," Bitcoin's price dropped 1.68% within 24 hours, briefly falling below the 80,200 mark. Ethereum also weakened simultaneously, falling 2.88% to $2,311. Other major cryptocurrencies like Solana and Ripple generally recorded declines of over 2%. Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both surged over 3%, while the three major US stock index futures collectively declined, and the precious metals market also weakened across the board.

The core disagreements causing the breakdown of negotiations mainly centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and the full lifting of sanctions. Both sides held opposing stances, making a short-term agreement highly unlikely. This uncertainty has intensified global market risk aversion, with CoinMarketCap's "Fear and Greed Index" dropping from 46 to 42 (neutral leaning toward fear).

It is worth noting that despite the short-term price pressure, cryptocurrencies' role as safe-haven assets in geopolitical conflicts is strengthening. Previously, during US-Israel military strikes against Iran, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline followed by a quick rebound, indicating some resilience. Additionally, Iran has proposed using cryptocurrencies to pay for passage fees for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. If implemented in the future, this could directly boost the practical demand for crypto assets.

Current market structure shows a clear dominance of institutional players, with retail trading volume decreasing in high-volatility environments, while whale addresses remain active, indicating that professional funds are leveraging price fluctuations for strategic positioning. In the long term, if geopolitical tensions persist, combined with rising global inflation pressures and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, the value of crypto assets as hedging tools could become even more prominent.

In summary: The back-and-forth negotiations between Iran and the US are likely to become the norm, and their impact on the market will gradually diminish. After the financial markets adapt to the oscillations of US-Iran relations, reactions will tend to "dull," returning to technical trend analysis. Moving forward, everyone should focus on technical analysis to grasp market rhythm—mainly buying dips on Bitcoin, and trading gold and oil within their oscillation ranges for high-probability buy low, sell high strategies.