Bullish market, the upward move is too smooth, the market needs a retracement

(With a direct drop of 5k points in the wave)

Key resistance at the daily chart level
Currently, the coin price is around 81, with strong resistance concentrated between 82,000 and 84,000.

From the K-line structure, the price started a unilateral rise from the late February low of $60,000, with multiple consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart. Recently, a stagnation signal appeared near $81,000, with trading volume shrinking compared to the upward phase, indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum.

At the daily level, the price is far from the 20-day moving average (about $78,000), with a high divergence rate, indicating a technical retracement is needed; meanwhile, the MACD indicator's red bars are continuously shrinking, and the RSI has entered overbought territory (above 70), forming a potential bearish divergence structure, increasing the short-term probability of a pullback!

Collecting information is very important
Recently, the short-term control of the Strait of Hormuz conflict has been limited, but high oil prices are exacerbating inflation pressure, possibly forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance; at the same time, market concerns about uncertainty in crypto policies after Trump’s visit to China and large whale cash-outs (such as large ETH transfers) are rising, and risk appetite could shift at any time.

Positioning strategy
Enter short positions around 82-81
Consider adding on dips near 83.5

Pay close attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials in mid to late May, and developments in the Iran-U.S. conflict. If there is an unexpected easing, adjust strategies promptly.

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