#Gate广场五月交易分享 Which projects have the greatest risks among the May unlock wave?

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Which projects have the greatest risks among the May unlock wave?
Based on a multi-dimensional comprehensive assessment of unlock scale, proportion of circulating supply, unlock attribution, and market structure, the projects with the highest risk in the May unlock wave can be ranked by risk level as follows:
🔴 Extremely high risk
1 SPEC (Spectral)— Unlocks 70.9% of circulating supply. This is the most extreme unlock event in May. SPEC has only unlocked about 4% of its total supply so far. On May 6, a one-time release of tokens equivalent to 70.9% of the current circulating supply occurred, mainly attributed to core contributors and investors (i.e., "insiders"). This is a typical "low circulation, high FDV" pattern—market cap appears modest, but the fully diluted valuation is extremely high. A large one-time release of insider tokens could cause a devastating supply shock if holders choose to cash out, fundamentally changing the market structure.
2 PYTH (Pyth Network)— Unlocks 58.4% of circulating supply. On May 20, 2.13 billion PYTH tokens (about $337 million) will be released, accounting for 58.4% of the current circulating supply. This is one of the largest cliff unlocks in May by dollar amount and has been described by multiple analysis firms as a "supply shock" event. Although PYTH is currently priced around $0.059, with a nearly 37% increase over the past 30 days, the unlock will instantly more than double the circulating supply, making short-term volatility and downward pressure almost unavoidable. An additional 5.8 billion tokens will be gradually released between 2026 and 2027, indicating ongoing supply pressure.
3 WBT (WhiteBIT Coin)— Unlocks 27.4% of circulating supply. On May 13, approximately 39.5 million WBT tokens (about $2.13B) will be released, representing 27.4% of the circulating supply. This is the largest single unlock by dollar amount in May. As an exchange platform token, WBT’s liquidity is mainly concentrated within the exchange, with limited depth in external markets. Large-scale unlocking raises questions about the platform’s ability to absorb the supply. The unlock occurred on May 11, with only about 22% of the total supply unlocked so far. This marks the beginning of a series of cliff unlocks, with subsequent supply releases expected to accelerate.

⚡ High risk
1 LAYER— Recent strong price performance, but a 12.87% single release will test whether the market can continue to absorb the new supply without breaking the upward trend.
2 ENA (Ethena)— Unlocks 172 million ENA tokens. In mid-May, about 172 million tokens will be unlocked. CCN analysis indicates that there is a risk of the price dropping to $0.25 after unlocking (currently around $0.13). However, ENA has gained 42% over the past 30 days, supported by fundamentals such as synthetic dollar protocols and internet bond narratives. While risky, it is slightly more controllable than the previous projects.
3 ZETA (ZetaChain)— Unlocks 5.67% of circulating supply. Unlocked on May 1, the proportion is not extreme, but ZETA has a relatively small market cap (about $87.6 million) and limited liquidity. A 5.67% increase in a low-liquidity environment could still cause noticeable volatility.

🟡 Medium risk
1 MOVE (Movement Network)— Unlocks 2.04% of circulating supply. The proportion is small, but MOVE’s current market cap is only about $74 million, with a negative 90-day price change of -13.7%. Projects with weak fundamentals may also face pressure during small-scale unlocks.
2 STRK (StarkNet)— Continuous linear unlocks. STRK is not experiencing a large single unlock in May, but data from Tokenomist shows that smart money holdings are steadily declining, making it one of the weakest fundamental unlock tokens. Even if the market rebounds, STRK has not gained effective demand support. Ongoing unlocks combined with insufficient demand pose long-term risks.
3 MOVE (Movement Network)— Unlocks 2.04% of circulating supply. The proportion is small, but with a market cap of only about $74 million and a 90-day decline of -13.7%, projects with weak fundamentals may also be under pressure during small unlocks. Continued unlocking with insufficient demand could pose long-term risks.

Core logic of risk assessment
When judging the size of unlock risk, three dimensions are mainly considered:
Unlock ratio vs. circulating supply: The higher the ratio, the more intense the supply shock. SPEC (70.9%) and PYTH (58.4%) far exceed other projects.
Market structure: Projects with low circulation/high FDV will undergo a fundamental change in market structure after unlocking—circulating supply may double or even multiply, fundamentally altering price support logic.
Data from 2025 shows that 84.7% of new tokens are currently trading below their TGE FDV, with a median retracement of 71%, which is a systemic consequence of this pattern.

Practical advice: If you hold tokens of the above high-risk projects, pay special attention to price fluctuations during the one to two weeks before the unlock date, and consider reducing your position or setting stop-loss orders. Especially for SPEC and PYTH, whose unlock scales have already exceeded "normal digestion," short-term volatility is hard to avoid even in a favorable market environment.