#Gate广场五月交易分享 The 80k USD Bitcoin's historical curse, has been challenged five times in the past six months, with four failures. Can it be broken this time?

Historical data review: 80k USD, a ghost gate for Bitcoin. Over the past six months, this barrier has been tested five times. The first four times, Bitcoin retreated each time. Either it touched the edge and turned downward, or it stabilized for a few days before being pushed back into the 70k USD range. Now, the fifth attempt is underway. On May 9th, Bitcoin once again approached 82k USD. This is the fifth attempt since 2026. The market is asking: will this curse be broken this time?

01st: December 2025, the flash crash after year-end celebration
Mid-December 2025, Bitcoin briefly touched 79.8k USD, just shy of 80k. At that time, the market was immersed in year-end festivities. The Federal Reserve signaled dovish policy, and markets bet on rate cuts in early 2026. Institutional funds continued flowing in via ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT experiencing net inflows exceeding $500 million for several days. Everything looked promising. But around December 20th, the plot changed. The Fed’s meeting minutes showed officials lacked confidence in inflation easing, hinting that rate cuts might be delayed beyond expectations. Meanwhile, year-end profit-taking surged, and institutions reduced their positions at high levels. Bitcoin quickly fell from 79.8k USD back to 72k USD, ending the first failed attempt to break 80k. That failure taught the market a lesson: year-end liquidity is fake; institutions harvest before holidays, retail investors stand guard before holidays.

02nd: Early January 2026, a promising start turns sour
January 2, 2026, the first trading day of the new year, Bitcoin surged strongly, briefly breaking through 80k USD, reaching a high of 80.5k USD. This was the first time in history to truly surpass 80k. The market cheered, and the slogan “$100k” rang out again. Social media was flooded with bullish posts, and bears were mocked thoroughly. But the good days lasted only three days. On January 5th, the US December non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, adding 250k jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market was jolted from its rate cut fantasy, and expectations of high Fed rates surged. Bitcoin plummeted from 80.5k USD to 73k USD within three days, a nearly 10% drop. The second attempt: Bitcoin briefly topped 80k but lasted less than 72 hours. Those who chased the high on New Year’s Day became the first batch of “harvested” retail investors in 2026.

03rd: Mid-March 2026, Trump’s tariffs deliver a blow
Around March 15, Bitcoin launched another assault, reaching a high of 79.5k USD. This surge was driven by Trump’s tariff policies. In early March, Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries, causing global markets to shake violently. Bitcoin initially followed US stocks into a plunge to 66k USD, then rebounded quickly on expectations that negative news had been priced in. The rebound was fierce, rising over 20% in just a week, from 66k to 79.5k USD. The market began to imagine a V-shaped reversal, believing 66k was the bottom for the year. But on March 20, Trump escalated tariff threats, announcing expanded tariffs. Panic re-emerged, and Bitcoin turned downward from 79.5k USD, falling all the way to 71k USD. The third attempt failed due to geopolitical uncertainty. In front of Trump, technical analysis was powerless. A single tweet could wipe out a month’s gains.

04th: End of April 2026, fake breakout followed by a sharp crash
On April 28, Bitcoin again approached 80k USD, reaching a high of 79.8k USD. This attempt was backed by the Fed. On April 30, the Fed kept rates steady, and Powell’s press conference conveyed a relatively dovish tone. The market interpreted this as a sign of imminent rate cuts, and risk assets rallied collectively. Bitcoin followed US stocks higher, nearly touching 80k USD. But on May 1, Trump suddenly announced blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing global markets to tense up instantly. Although later proven to be mostly verbal threats, panic had already spread. Bitcoin retreated from 79.8k USD to 76k USD, and the fourth attempt failed again. This failure showed that 80k USD is not just a technical level but also a psychological barrier. The market becomes extremely sensitive near 80k, and any small disturbance can trigger profit-taking.

05th: Now, May 2026, can the curse be broken?
Currently, Bitcoin is once again at the doorstep of 80k USD. On May 8, the Fed held steady, and Trump announced a trade deal with the UK. The dual positive news pushed Bitcoin briefly close to 82k USD. From the April 7 low of 66k USD, the rebound has exceeded 24%. What’s different this time? From a capital perspective, institutional inflows are indeed returning. Fidelity reports that funds are flowing from gold into Bitcoin ETFs, with increasing net inflows into large addresses. Strategy’s holdings are showing increased unrealized gains, and Galaxy, though at a loss, has ample cash reserves. These institutions’ core holdings provide support below.
From a macro perspective, Trump’s trade deal, though limited in scope, signals easing. The Fed, while not cutting rates, is also not raising them further, so liquidity conditions have not worsened.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the 75k to 80k USD range long enough for a thorough chip exchange. If it can hold above 80k USD for more than a week, the selling pressure from trapped positions will significantly decrease, opening room for upward movement. But the curse is called a curse because it has self-fulfilling power. When the market generally believes “it can’t break 80k,” once the price nears 80k, profit-taking reflexively kicks in. This collective psychology is the biggest obstacle.

06 criteria for breaking the curse: what constitutes a real breakthrough
Many retail investors think that touching 80k USD counts as a breakthrough. That’s a misconception. A true breakthrough requires three conditions:
- Closing price above 80k USD for three consecutive days.
- Intraday突破does not count; only closing above counts, and must be three days in a row.
- Volume must increase significantly.
A breakout must be accompanied by a clear surge in volume, indicating new funds entering, not just existing investors trading among themselves.
If volume shrinks near 80k USD, it indicates low market participation, and the breakout’s credibility is low.
- No dips below 80k USD during the pullback.
After a breakout, a pullback is inevitable. If during the pullback, 80k USD turns from resistance into support, and the price stabilizes and rebounds, the breakout is valid.
If it falls back below 78k USD, the breakout fails, and 80k remains the ceiling.
Currently, Bitcoin has not met any of these three conditions. Although it briefly approached 82k USD on May 8, the close was near 80k, and in the following two days, it oscillated between 79k and 81k USD without a clear steady hold.

07 if it fails again, where will it fall?
If the fifth attempt fails again, where are the supports?
First support at 75k USD. This is the 200-day moving average and a previous testing low.
If it falls below 75k USD, it indicates a medium-term downtrend, and the rebound is just a correction within the decline.
Second support at 70k USD. This is the lower boundary of the April consolidation zone and a psychological round number.
If 70k USD is broken, panic will intensify, and the market could quickly slide to the annual low of 66k USD.
Third support at 66k USD. This is the low on April 7 and the starting point of this rebound.
If it falls below 66k USD, it means the annual bottom has been breached, and the market will enter a deeper correction, with targets around 55k to 60k USD. Of course, this is the most pessimistic scenario.
If the breakout succeeds, the targets above are clear: first target at 85k USD, second at 90k USD, and ultimate at 100k USD.

80k USD is not just a technical level; it’s a psychological defense line in the crypto world. Over the past six months, this line has been challenged four times, all ending in failure. The reasons vary: year-end liquidity traps, non-farm payroll shocks, Trump’s tariffs, geopolitical conflicts. But the underlying logic remains the same—markets have accumulated too many trapped and profit-taking positions near 80k USD, with insufficient new funds to push through. This fifth attempt by institutions has seen some inflows, but they are not charitable. They buy below 70k USD and sell near 80k USD. What can truly keep Bitcoin steady above 80k USD is not institutional holdings but retail FOMO. When retail investors start frantically chasing the rally, only then can 80k USD be truly broken. Right now, retail investors are still hesitating, asking “Can it break through?” waiting for others to act first. This hesitation is both a feature of the bottom and a pain before the breakthrough.