Evening Thoughts on “Er Bing”

✅ Long Position Thinking
• Retracement target: first prioritize waiting for the 2328-2335 range. Once it stabilizes and MACD remains bullish without shrinking volume, try a small long position.
• Stop-loss setting: if it falls below 2310, exit unconditionally to avoid the trend turning worse.
• Target levels: first target 2350-2355 (Bollinger upper band + previous high). After a breakout, look at 2365-2375.
✅ Short Position Thinking (for short-term pullbacks only; do not short the trend)
• The current price is in the 2348-2350 range. You can try a small short position to bet on an overbought pullback. Targets: 2330-2335. Stop-loss: above 2355.
• Note: This is a short “overbought correction” trade, not a trend short. Once the pullback tests support and stabilizes, you must close the short position; never hold through with the position.
4 hours
• Bollinger Bands: the price is under pressure near the upper band at 2350.7. The middle band is 2311.39 and the lower band is 2272.09, which form support. The overall band is flattening, indicating a choppy market with a slightly bullish bias.
• Indicators: RSI 76 (at the overbought edge), KDJ three lines are at high levels (K83/D78/J93). There is a risk of a turnhead dead cross, and bullish momentum is weakening.
1 hour
• Bollinger Bands: the price has just broken above the upper band at 2342.24. Support is clearly at the middle band 2328.57 and the lower band 2314.90. The near term is bullish, but the upper band is under resistance.
• Indicators: RSI 85.84 (overbought), KDJ high (K74/D63/J98). The short-term is overbought and may pull back at any time.
15 minutes
• Bollinger Bands: the price is above the upper band at 2345.10. The Bollinger Bands are opening upward, indicating strong upward push in the short term. However, RSI 92.59 and KDJ are at high levels—severely overbought—so the probability of a pullback is extremely high.
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