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The risk asset markets give me a sense of a "fragile prosperity."
AI and semiconductors are driving the indices, with stock prices rising enthusiastically; BTC is down but far from panic; the market believes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner or later.
The market seems to understand the risks: imported inflation, high interest rates putting pressure on the private credit market, AI capital expenditure, and earnings forecasts that cannot last forever.
But the market still believes: AI will deliver on the future, and the Federal Reserve will backstop the risks.
In fact, the speed of AI development seems not to have kept pace with the appreciation of AI-related assets, and the high inflation pressures faced by the Federal Reserve make its market rescue options more constrained.
Under such prosperity, I believe chasing is a greater risk than missing out, yet it has not brought higher risk premiums.
I want to observe: credit spreads, core PCE, market sentiment.
Disclaimer: The above discussion is not investment advice in any form. If your ideas differ from mine, then you are very likely correct.