Web3哲学家Arnaud

The core competitive advantage of entrepreneurs and investors is cross-disciplinary paradigm recognition.
Recognize paradigms, not individual instances of understanding.
As Confucius put it, this means drawing inferences from one example to others, and knowing ten from one.
The ability to abstract paradigms across different fields is what we call “philosophy.”
As Aristotle put it, this is called prima philosophia—the highest-priority drive to seek knowledge.

From one victory to another victory.

The brokerage business for high-value assets is one of the most profitable, and also one of the best ways for individuals to accumulate wealth.
The essence of brokerage is matching trades, pricing the costs of trading frictions (i.e., liquidity).
Everything is a market maker.
Real estate brokers, art brokers, watch brokers, investment banks/financial advisors, securities market makers.
They do not hold inventory risk (not that they do not hold inventory, but that they do not hold inventory risk), earning liquidity premiums.
Scale effects are strong, and relationship networks or high-

0% → 0.25% (March 2024) → 0.5% (July 2024) → 0.75% (January 2025) → 1.0% (June 2026)
The Bank of Japan has entered a cycle of interest rate normalization.
Carry trades will be closed out, and risk assets will be suppressed.
The paradigm of macroeconomic liquidity is changing.
Be patient and wait, never miss the best shot.
A dull knife cuts meat, bleeding markets, who will enjoy it willingly?

Impulsive traders are certain to lose money, while even patient traders may not necessarily be profitable.
Making money is a difficult thing, and you must treat it with reverence.

I was born to be an art investment expert, but I need to accumulate enough funds to do it.

"On Liquidity Intermediation and Price Discovery Mechanisms"
Interestingly, prices tend to concentrate in areas richest in liquidity.
Rather than markets discovering value, markets are discovering consensus.
Support and resistance levels are both results of self-reinforcing market liquidity.
The most typical examples: the second-hand luxury goods market, real estate agents.
Pricing power belongs to liquidity providers, not to buyers or sellers, unless one side has overwhelming strength that changes the price fluctuation range.
Passive market makers are liquidity providers; they are

People always turn bearish when a bad surface appears, ignoring the causes behind the trend.
I always look for the substance of how things develop beyond appearances, and when the bad surface and the robust essence clash, I always choose to believe in the essence.
See the temporary noise and the eternal essence, and distinguish between them appropriately.

If I were the Federal Reserve, I would now consider keeping monetary policy unchanged until there is a structural change on either the inflation or economic side.
For risk assets: short-term negative, medium-term positive.

During a bull market, you’ll find everyone buying—ETFs are being passively bought, MicroStrategy is decisively buying, and whales are dramatically adding to their positions.
During a bear market, you’ll find everyone selling—ETFs are being passively sold, MicroStrategy is testing the waters to sell coins, and whales are forced to liquidate.
In reality, neither buying nor selling is the reason prices rise or fall; rather, they are explanations for price movements. Prices seem to be directly affected by buying and selling behavior, but in fact they are functions of more complex factors.
Ri

Reflecting on this:
If I establish some BTC hedging positions, it would be more beneficial for my portfolio risk situation.
Since February, I have been bearish on risk assets including BTC and have provided analysis.
The reason I haven't shorted is because I believe shorting is an extremely asymmetric risk-reward trade, with unlimited risk but limited reward, and it requires enduring significant psychological pressure.
But a short position in BTC can hedge the macro risk of holding other altcoins and on-chain assets. In my clear bearish outlook, I should make better hedging decisions.

Where can I meet beautiful and smart girls?
Since turning to investment as a profession, I have fewer social interactions with people, and I mostly chat with AI every day.

1. 1972-1973 (Nixon Prosperity → Oil Crisis)
Nixon massively loosened monetary policy to seek re-election, causing stocks and inflation to rise simultaneously. In 1972, the Dow hit a new high, and the CPI also accelerated. In 1973, after the oil embargo, the Fed was forced to aggressively raise interest rates, the stock market halved, and a decade of stagflation began.
Key features: Politically driven excess liquidity + supply-side shocks = inflation and asset prices rising together, then collapsing together.
2. 1999-2000 (End of the Tech Bubble)
While the NASDAQ soared wildly, core PC

When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.

I am a barbarian, and do not share the Chinese title or posthumous name.

When credit loosens to the point that even those without the ability to repay can borrow heavily to buy assets, the bubble has already reached its final stage.

The risk asset markets give me a sense of a "fragile prosperity."
AI and semiconductors are driving the indices, with stock prices rising enthusiastically; BTC is down but far from panic; the market believes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner or later.
The market seems to understand the risks: imported inflation, high interest rates putting pressure on the private credit market, AI capital expenditure, and earnings forecasts that cannot last forever.
But the market still believes: AI will deliver on the future, and the Federal Reserve will backstop the risks.
In fact, the speed

Pain is part of pricing.
The pain of waiting through volatility, the pain of panic during a sharp decline, the pain of missing out during an uptrend.
If you want to avoid one type of pain, you will face the other two.

Crypto is heading towards financial nihilism, which harms cultural capital—namely, the "cool factor" of this industry.
When 5% of intellectuals choose to leave, Crypto is no longer canonized, and thus encryption is no longer cool.
In terms of cultural capital, Crypto needs AI, not the other way around. This is an inevitable trend.