5.10 Market Analysis

There is not much market activity over the weekend, and no key breakout levels have appeared in the structure, so today I will do a brief update.

Trend direction: Slightly bearish

BTC: After retesting the support zone of 78,156-79,257 and the EMA20 resonance area, it started a slight oscillation and rebound over the weekend, but there are no signs of volume breakout on the daily chart. There is a trend resistance line on the daily level above, and the daily chart is gradually forming a “downward three-method” pattern. Until it can effectively break through the body of the May 7th candle, a bullish stance remains cautious. The support and resistance levels previously provided remain valid. Today, the core focus is on the breakout of the 81,429-82,022 zone. Aggressive traders on the left side may consider opening short positions around this level or slightly below, with a stop loss near 82,200 and take profit between 79,257 and 79,673. In case of a sharp decline, watch for 77,601-78,232 (valid today).

ETH: After retesting the support zone of 2,236-2,273 and the EMA50 on the daily chart, it formed a support rebound. Since this decline was larger than BTC, the rebound strength is slightly stronger. However, unlike BTC, the previous upward trend was relatively weak, so the medium and large moving averages have formed effective resistance after this decline. The 12H level is clearly suppressed by the MA250, which is also the MA45 on the 4H level and the MA180 on the 1H level, providing noticeable resistance. This zone also marks the previous key support/resistance area (2,335-2,345). Therefore, tonight’s focus is on the breakout of this zone. Aggressive traders may consider opening short positions at or slightly below this level, with a stop loss near 2,352 and take profit between 2,256 and 2,277. In case of a sharp decline, watch for 2,206-2,223 (valid today).

After briefly reviewing the technical aspects, let’s discuss potential news influences. Next Tuesday and Wednesday, US April CPI and PPI data will be released, and on May 15, Kevin W. will assume the role of Federal Reserve Chair. Meanwhile, Trump’s豪华阵容团 has been actively promoting visits to China. Although our Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not made an official announcement, the arrival of 4-5 C17 aircraft carrying parade materials in Beijing indicates that the visit is almost confirmed. The delay in official confirmation may be due to Trump’s strategic maneuvers. If the visit proceeds as promoted, these news and data releases could cause significant market volatility next week.

Regarding US stocks, I continue to speculate that the first half of next week will see continued gains, followed by declines in the second half. On the weekly level, especially for the NASDAQ and S&P 500, expect to see upper shadows and then a series of adjustments.

When conducting technical analysis, we must avoid subjective guesses about tops, bottoms, or directions. Instead, we should objectively analyze support and resistance zones and choose safer entry points, combining market sentiment to adopt a long-short trading approach. However, since I tend to be somewhat speculative, I have some trading biases, and at this level, I prefer to lean toward shorting on the left side.

Finally, let’s talk about position management. As everyone knows, the key points in trading are: first, position management; second, mental and emotional control; third, technical analysis. I divide my positions into three types for trend, short-term, and “gambling” trades, with different base sizes, leverage ratios, stop-loss settings, and take-profit levels. For example, my BTC and ETH short-term trend positions currently have take-profit targets set at 73,888 and 2,046 respectively. If there are no clear market movements, I will hold until next week. The levels mentioned above are for short-term trading, typically aiming for 1-3% profit or loss within the day. Please consider your own trading habits and trade rationally.