Geopolitical risk cooling and the change in Federal Reserve personnel constitute the main market themes next week. The peace prospects in the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, if they continue the logic of risk asset revaluation after the ceasefire agreement on April 9, may further suppress risk aversion sentiment and drive capital flows into technology stocks and other risk assets. The three major US stock indices have already gained over 8% year-to-date, with the market repeatedly reaching new highs supported by strong earnings reports and geopolitical easing.

The key point is that Kevin Wash is set to officially succeed Powell as Fed Chair on May 15. This transition had a 94% probability during the nomination hearing on April 19, and the market has already anticipated his policy stance. But the more noteworthy detail is whether the speeches by Fed officials (Williams, Bostic, etc.) during the dense schedule next week, coinciding with the power transition window, will hint at subtle shifts in internal consensus, which will have a more direct impact on medium- to long-term liquidity expectations than a single CPI data release.

This week, significant peace prospects emerged in both the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, greatly easing geopolitical risks. Next week, whether these two conflicts can further de-escalate is worth close attention. Additionally, the macroeconomic events next week focus on the US April CPI data, specifically as follows:
Tuesday 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams participates in a panel discussion on monetary policy;
Tuesday 20:15, US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending April 25;
Tuesday 20:30, US April CPI data;
Wednesday 04:30, US API weekly crude oil inventories ending May 8;
Wednesday 20:30, US April PPI annual and monthly rates;
Friday 05:30, Fed Governor Bostic delivers a speech;
Friday 21:15, US April industrial production monthly rate.

Next week, the Federal Reserve will experience significant personnel changes. Nominee Kevin Wash is expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and will officially take over from Powell as Chair on May 15.

In the US stock market, as of this Friday, a new round of surge has pushed the S&P 500 index to an 8% cumulative increase in 2026, continuing its rise based on two consecutive years of double-digit returns. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has gained nearly 13% year-to-date, with both major indices reaching all-time highs. Although the Q1 earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will still be a key driver of stock prices in the coming days. $ETH