#Gate广场五月交易分享 The core judgment of the BTC volume-price relationship is: you should not only look at the trading volume, but also at the scale of US dollar funds. The real feature of a bull market is “rising on expanding volume”—the higher the price, the more funds that enter (such as the main upward trend from 2023–2025). But in 2025, from 90,000 to 126,000, there was “volume-price divergence”: the price made a new high, yet the funds declined instead. This is similar to the “new highs on shrinking volume” seen in 2021; at essence, it was the final sprint of existing funds. A true major bottom, like 15,443 in 2022, was a period of funds being “completely inert”—no one was buying or selling. Currently, market funds are still active; it’s not inert, but more like a tug-of-war in the middle stage of a bear market. Therefore, the key is not the price, but whether subsequent upswings are accompanied by newly added funds: only sustained volume expansion may bring in the conditions for a main rally, while a rebound on shrinking volume is still a contest among existing players. Finally, a strong emphasis: trading is a game of probabilities—staying appropriately cautious is more important than desperately trying to predict.