Wall Street oracle Tom Lee reveals: If Bitcoin stays above $76k in May, the "big bull market" will fully kick off

Fundstrat Co-Founder and Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated on Thursday that the cryptocurrency bear market is very likely over, and a new bull cycle driven by “asset tokenization” and “AI financial services” is poised to emerge. Tom Lee delivered a speech at the “Consensus 2026” conference held in Miami on Thursday. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent strong rebound is a historic signal that the market is gradually shaking off its downturn. Looking back at this correction, Bitcoin fell from a high of $126,000 in October last year to a defense line of $60,000 in February this year, and now finally arrives at a key turning point. Following consecutive gains in March and April, Bitcoin has gained about 5% since May. If this upward momentum continues until the end of the month, it could mark the third consecutive month of positive returns. Tom Lee said:

In past bear markets, Bitcoin has never risen for three consecutive months. If Bitcoin’s closing price at the end of the month can stay above $76,000, we can conclude: the bear market has been thoroughly over.

Tom Lee observed that many investors are still psychologically trapped in the panic from the previous crash, severely underestimating the strength of this rebound. To support his optimistic view, he highlighted recent comments from John Bollinger, the inventor of the Bollinger Bands and a seasoned trading master, who said that the trend model has turned bullish for Bitcoin, which is another technical bullish indicator. Additionally, the correlation effect of software stocks has also added fuel to the bullish fire. Tom Lee explained that software stocks previously suffered heavy declines due to market fears that AI would disrupt their business models, but based on historical experience, software stocks and Bitcoin tend to have a high positive correlation. He further added that since the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, the performance of crypto assets has outpaced most traditional financial markets, with Ethereum’s rally being particularly fierce. Asset Tokenization and AI Agents Will Lead the Next Wave of Market Frenzy Looking ahead, Tom Lee believes there are two major disruptive trends in finance that will become the ultimate fuel for the next cryptocurrency bull market: one is the “asset tokenization” of all physical or traditional assets on the blockchain; the other is “AI agents” operating on blockchain infrastructure. Tom Lee analyzed that future AI agents will have the demand to autonomously transfer value (i.e., need to “spend money themselves” to perform tasks), which will inevitably make them highly dependent on borderless, efficient blockchain and tokenized financial systems. He cited the widespread adoption of stablecoins as an example, demonstrating that this transformation has already quietly begun. Currently, the total trading volume of stablecoins worldwide has officially surpassed that of traditional payment giant Visa. At the same time, he referenced a report from asset management firm Grayscale, which states that up to $300 trillion in traditional securities markets will eventually migrate entirely onto blockchain in the form of tokenized assets. He said:

Whoever can serve as the underlying network for these massive tokenized economic activities will be able to capture the greatest economic value.

Financial Landscape Reshuffle: Digital Native Companies to Dominate Wall Street This revolution brought by blockchain and AI will fundamentally reshape the economic structure of the financial industry. Tom Lee presented a striking comparison: JPMorgan Chase, a Wall Street giant with 300,000 employees, is estimated to earn about $60 billion this year; yet, companies like stablecoin issuer Tether or quantitative trading giant Jane Street require only a small number of employees to generate comparable profits. He summarized:

Native digital companies that settle transactions via blockchain can save on the cumbersome traditional processes and massive labor costs.

In Tom Lee’s view, cryptocurrency-native financial firms will, like the tech giants that swept the world over the past 20 years, gradually encroach upon and replace traditional media and telecom industries. He said: