If the Russia-Ukraine war truly begins to move toward a ceasefire, the main logic behind gold may be weakening.

What the market trades on is never the war itself, but whether "risk continues to worsen."
Recently, Russia has begun restoring flights at some airports in the south, and the United States is also pushing for ceasefire negotiations, indicating that global capital has started repricing geopolitical risks.
At the same time, US tech stocks surged again a few days ago.
This is actually a very important signal:
Funds are starting to flow out of "safe-haven assets" and back into "risk assets."
When the market re-believes in growth, AI, and the tech cycle, the risk premium of gold will be compressed.
Gold now is more like a highly crowded consensus trade.
And all consensus trades will ultimately face the same question:
When new buyers decrease, who will take the final turn?