Six consecutive days of ETF inflows lead to reflection: "Institutional bull" or "liquidity trap"?

Dear colleagues, these six weeks of net ETF inflows have triggered many shorts to blow up. The current market situation can no longer be explained by simple technical analysis; this is a typical "funds bulldozing" market.

Currently, BTC stays above $80,000, and ETH is hovering around $2,330. But everyone needs to see a reality: the main force behind this inflow is not retail investors, but those dressed in suits—institutions. BlackRock and Fidelity's subscription data are being refreshed daily, indicating that the chips below $80,000 are basically locked by institutions.

I don’t like to look at overly flashy charts; I focus on these critical levels:
Bitcoin (BTC) indicators:
Support zone: $80,300 - $78,000. This is the "average eating point" for institutions over the past two weeks. My principle is: as long as the daily close doesn’t break below $78,000, my medium- to long-term positions will remain firm.

Resistance level: $84,500. This is a dense area of trapped positions near the previous high. If next week can break through with volume, $90,000 is just around the corner; if not, it’s likely to oscillate around $80,000 and be frustrating.

Ethereum (ETH) indicators:
Key level: $2,350. Honestly, ETH has been a bit "soft" lately. It’s currently pressed at the intersection of the downtrend line and the 200-day moving average.

Strategy: Only if it stabilizes above $2,400 can ETH shake off its "Lian Daiyu" (delicate) nature. Falling below $2,260, be cautious—there’s a risk of testing lower levels.

Everyone is shouting for a bull return, but I, Lao Wu, have to pour some cold water.
ETF is a double-edged sword: institutional buying is continuous, but if macro data (like next week’s CPI) turns out bad, institutions can dump harder than retail investors. Now, with AUM (Assets Under Management) surpassing 100 billion, a reversal could cause a very scary liquidity stampede.

ETH/BTC ratio: this indicator is currently weak. It tells us that big funds are still hedging in BTC, and a large-scale breakout of altcoins will take more time. Don’t rush to go all-in on those chaotic L2s or "土狗" (sh*tcoins).

My judgment: short-term high-level oscillation, medium-term bullish trend, but beware of a "deep squat" move.

Use $78,000 as a defensive backing. As long as it doesn’t break, a pullback is an opportunity to accumulate in stages.
Keep an eye on $84,500. If a volume-driven breakout occurs on the 4-hour chart, follow through on the right side, targeting $95,000.

At this position, don’t try to guess the top. Institutions aren’t entering just to make 10% and then leave; our job is to stay like crocodiles at key support levels, waiting for the market to move on its own.

Don’t get reckless just because of six weeks of continuous inflows. The market has already become "institutionalized." Institutions are greedier than retail investors, but they also have more patience.

In crypto, one day is like a year in the human world. The above is Lao Wu’s personal review and not investment advice. If you lose money, don’t come to me; if you make money, buy me a drink. #BTC重返8万 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌