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The non-farm payrolls in May announced 11.5% employment, indicating a strong economy, so the signal radiating out is a delay in rate cuts; the Federal Reserve doesn't need to cut rates to save the market.
The announced wage growth of 0.2%, weak, shows that inflation isn't adding fuel to the fire.
The Fed also doesn't need to raise interest rates to extinguish the fire.
Putting these together, the conclusion is one word: wait.
High interest rates will last longer, and rate cuts will be pushed further back.
According to past logic, delaying rate cuts should be positive for the dollar, but the dollar instead fell, U.S. stocks soared to new highs, and the crypto market oscillated.
This kind of extreme market signal has been frequently replayed in recent weeks.
Today, I conclude after reviewing that four words: forget the past!
In the past, we used to evaluate the overall range based on fundamentals and economic data, but in recent weeks, we've rebounded from 60,000 to 82,000.
Looking back, the pressure-testing trend has long been broken.
If we follow the old logical thinking to judge bullish or bearish, we will only be dragged down by outdated concepts.
Therefore, I decide that, in the short term, we should not look at trends or directions.
Data can deceive, news can deceive, yellow-haired Iran can deceive, but market signals and ETF real reflections will not.
Every candlestick is made by someone stacking real gold and silver; this is the only standard that dominates the market.
If we still judge bullish or bearish with old logic, I feel we are somewhat swimming naked!
We only need to forget all previous viewpoints and, at this moment, follow technical logic to analyze market bullish or bearishness.
Don't carry the old fixed-boat-for-sword logic, don't look at long-term trends for large gains, focus on short-term swings to stay invincible!
Next week, it will be another week full of major events: Federal Reserve personnel votes, U.S. CPI, "Crypto Clarity Act" voting, Powell's resignation, ETF capital flows, etc., all requiring our close attention.
Once CPI is below expectations, the Clarity Act passes smoothly, and ETF continues to flow in net, the price may surge to 836-850.
Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations, the bill faces obstacles, and ETF turns net outflow, it may fall back to test 770-780.
In the short term, market signals are still strong; as long as it doesn't break below 792, the bullish idea remains valid.
Breaking through 817, there is momentum to return to 830, even the taste of 845-868!
A breakout turns it strong; the bull-bear dividing line is 868!
I suggest going long from Monday to Wednesday next week, then short on Thursday and Friday.