Did non-farm data fool everyone?

The real threat to the crypto world is not "no rate cuts"
U.S. non-farm payrolls added 115k jobs in April, better than expected, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
But behind these shiny numbers are all sorts of tricks:
· The labor force participation rate dropped to its lowest since October 2021 — many people have simply stopped looking for work.
· Based on the original population calculations, the real unemployment rate is about 5.3%, not 4.3%.
· Wages are growing slowly, and tech companies (Meta, Microsoft) are still cutting jobs.
· Employment mainly relies on healthcare and courier services, with a weak foundation.
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Federal Reserve: No chance of rate cuts, stagflation shadow looms
The market has already priced in no rate cuts this year, with even a 40% chance of rate hikes next year.
More troubling is that the Iran situation could push oil prices higher, while the economy is already starting to weaken — this is "stagflation" (poor economy + high inflation).
The Fed is caught in a dilemma: afraid of inflation if they cut rates, afraid of recession if they don’t.
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For the crypto world: old logic fails, new risk is stagflation
In the past, no rate cuts = negative for markets, BTC should fall.
But after the data came out, Bitcoin didn’t fall; it stayed above $80k. Because the "no rate cut" expectation has already been priced in by the market, it can’t drop further.
The real danger is stagflation:
· If the economy suddenly worsens, people will sell crypto first to cover living expenses → sharp decline
· Meanwhile, high inflation persists, and the Fed dares not loosen policy → capital costs stay high
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Advice for crypto traders:
· Don’t expect rate cuts to boost the market anymore; that expectation is shattered.
· Watch two signals: weekly unemployment numbers (to see if the economy suddenly worsens), oil prices (to monitor inflation).
· Any major shock could cause BTC to fall first (liquidity crisis), then rise again (safe haven).
· Don’t go all-in on one side; keep stablecoins or cash ready.
· BTC and ETH tend to resist declines, but volatility will be high in a stagflation environment.
$BTC