#Gate广场五月交易分享

My ETH Intraday Long Plan

1. Market Review

Current ETH Price: 2,313.46 USDT, 24h Change: +1.68%. Technical indicators show a bullish daily alignment (MA7=2,327 > MA30=2,317 > MA120=2,306), ADX indicates moderate trend strength, SAR long stop-loss at 2,265, overall trend is bullish but not very strong. 24h trading volume is about 190 million USDT, significantly higher than the 7-day average, indicating increased participation. ETH gained 1.84% today, outperforming BTC (+0.99%), showing relative strength.

However, there are some signals to watch out for: at the daily level, MACD shows a bearish divergence (price hitting new highs but DIF not confirming), MACD histogram is negative and narrowing (-6.80 vs previous -6.66), indicating waning upward momentum; the 15-minute closing price has broken below MA20, short-term weakening; most importantly—the Bollinger Band bandwidth is at a near 30-day low, narrowing to 126.99, well below the 30-day maximum bandwidth of 501, suggesting a potential trend reversal is imminent, with direction uncertain—could go up or down.

On the news front, ETH ETF fund flows are unstable: on May 5th, net inflow was 97.57 million USD (relatively strong), but on May 7th, only 11.5 million USD flowed in, with BlackRock’s buy-in only 2.1 million—spot demand has dropped to a 7-week low. Community discussions indicate the 2,400 resistance level repeatedly fails, and the rally is mainly driven by futures contracts rather than spot support, posing a hidden risk for sustained bullishness.

2. Entry Strategy: Build Positions in Two Batches

Batch 1 — Entry zone 2,300-2,306, suggested position size 40%

The first support is formed between the daily MA120 (2,306) and the 24h low area (2,273-2,280). Current price at 2,313 is close to this zone. If it pulls back to 2,300-2,306 and stabilizes (15-minute candles close bullish, MACD histogram turns positive), consider entering lightly. Since Bollinger Band is narrowing and a reversal may be near, avoid rushing into a position during sideways consolidation; wait for a confirmed pullback for safer entry.

Batch 2 — Entry zone 2,265-2,275, suggested position size 60%

The daily SAR bullish stop-loss is at 2,265, with the 24h low near 2,273. If a deep correction reaches this zone, it provides a stronger support level for adding to positions. But note: breaking below 2,265 means the daily SAR turns bearish, and no additional long positions should be added—stop-loss should be triggered instead.

3. Risk Management:

Take-profit targets: staggered partial exits

Target 1 — 2,326: near the daily MA7 (2,327) and the 24h high of 2,325.91, the first short-term resistance. Upon reaching, reduce position by 30% to lock in some profits.

Target 2 — 2,400: a key resistance level repeatedly discussed in the community, previously broken but then lost. If ETH can hold above 2,400 (confirmed by daily close), the bullish trend is confirmed with room to run higher. After reaching, reduce another 40%.

Target 3 — 2,450-2,470: above the 30-day average high of 2,354, possibly reached if momentum explodes. Pursue remaining 30% and trail stop-loss accordingly.

Stop-loss setup:

Hard stop-loss: 2,260 (below daily SAR at 2,265 and 24h low at 2,273, confirming bullish structure failure, exit decisively)

Trailing stop-loss rule: after entering, if price rises more than 30 points, move stop-loss to entry price +5 points (break-even). After reaching target 1, move remaining position’s stop-loss to 2,305 (near entry). After target 2, move stop-loss to 2,320.

4. Timing Suggestions:

From now until European session open (around 14:00-16:00 UTC): observe if price pulls back and stabilizes in the 2,300-2,306 zone, prepare for Batch 1 entry; or watch if Bollinger Bands start to widen (a volume breakout above 2,326 can also be an entry signal).

During the US session (around 20:00-24:00 UTC): this is a critical window for ETH ETF fund flow data release. If inflows align, there’s potential to push toward the 2,400 target.