HABIBI April Cryptocurrency Market Summary and Outlook

1. April Cryptocurrency Market Summary: External Risks Converge, Cryptocurrency Market Experiences a Twisted Rebound

In April, BTC began a choppy rebound after two months of oscillation and bottoming, rising 11.8% for the month, closing at $76,347 at the end of the month. In early May, BTC continued to rebound, breaking through $80k. The bottom characteristics of BTC in March have gradually solidified, but due to external risks, the uncertainty of the rebound is high, and the strength is hard to assess. As time passes, the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts on the global financial markets has gradually diminished, and the Nasdaq index in the US also reached a new high in mid-April. External risks are converging, and BTC’s rebound is not surprising, but the current rebound path has been bumpy, and the rebound strength is not particularly strong. Institutional funds continue to accumulate, with Strategy increasing its BTC holdings by about 42k coins in April, significantly boosting purchases since March, with total holdings reaching approximately 818k coins, at an average cost of about $75,537. BlackRock’s IBIT (retail + institutional funds) increased its BTC holdings by about 23k coins in April, with total holdings around 814k coins. On May 5th, Strategy released its Q1 report, revealing significant information—the company is abandoning its promise of “never selling BTC,” possibly selling some BTC to pay dividends. This statement officially breaks the idealized belief, returning to a rational and pragmatic management strategy. This move is conducive to more institutional investors deeply engaging with BTC, making market competition more robust, and leading to a healthier BTC chip structure.

2. In April, ETH gained 7.2% for the month, closing at $2,257.5, and has not yet surpassed April’s rebound high in May. So far, the rebound strength is significantly weaker than BTC. ETH’s weak performance does not align with the characteristics of the early stage of a market-wide bottom reversal, further confirming that the rebound space is limited. BitMine continued to increase its ETH holdings, adding about 285k coins in April, with total holdings around 80k coins, accounting for about 4.21% of ETH’s total supply.

3. In April, DOGE performed remarkably well, forming an independent rebound, with a monthly increase of 15.6%, closing at $0.1089 at the end of the month. In late April, it successfully broke through the key $0.10 level, leading the mainstream altcoins in growth. Market attention continued to rise, with whales heavily increasing their DOGE holdings by about $330 million in April, reaching a total of 108.52 billion coins, setting a new record high; institutional product 21Shares TDOG also increased holdings by about 12 million coins, with total holdings around 55 million coins. As the rally broke out, net institutional capital inflow officially turned positive, with Grayscale GDOG experiencing its first inflow in nine days. The market’s driving logic is gradually shifting from retail meme sentiment to structured institutional participation, making it one of the standout performers among mainstream altcoins.

4. In April, LTC steadily recovered following the market, rising 8.3% for the month, closing at $56.42. It smoothly broke through the $55 resistance level in mid-April, maintaining a steady trend. As a mainstream coin known as “digital silver,” LTC’s narrative re-entered the market’s view in April. Coupled with the ongoing MWEB upgrade and the scarcity advantage of a fixed supply of 84 million coins, LTC has gained long-term favor from allocation funds during the altcoin rotation. Whales increased their LTC holdings by about 1.2 million coins in April, with total holdings of 12.8 million coins, at an average cost of about $52.10; Grayscale’s GLTC also increased holdings by about 45k coins, reaching a total of 1.32 million coins. Institutional funds continue to deploy, supporting the steady upward movement of the coin.

5. Altcoins show fleeting bursts of activity, with speculative sentiment still lacking scale recovery. Meme tokens like RAVE experienced over 100x surges within two weeks, then rapidly fell 98%, reflecting the release of some long-term speculative funds suppressed for a long time. Major coins like privacy coin ZEC rebounded more than three times from the bottom, returning to last year’s high of 75%. These sporadic performances are all driven by strong whales, with no sign of market consensus. The index sets the stage, and sentiment performs, but considering BTC’s insufficient rebound strength, altcoins currently lack speculative value.

Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: The current market is a rebound, not a reversal, caution is still needed; the biggest opportunity this year requires a true reversal

BTC, ETH, DOGE, LTC have all begun a phase rebound, with DOGE and LTC performing relatively well due to thematic and capital advantages. However, we emphasize that the overall market is a rebound, not a reversal. After experiencing a significant main downtrend, the chips of BTC and ETH are not yet sufficiently consolidated to support a full reversal; even though DOGE and LTC are temporarily stronger than ETH, this is only due to sector rotation and structural capital movement, not a market-wide consensus reversal trend. Cautiously approach non-strong rebound opportunities based on their feasibility; for mediocre opportunities, better to miss than to risk. Looking at the long-term, BTC’s large-cycle bottom has been established, and main altcoins like DOGE and LTC are gradually completing their bottoming process. We await a genuine reversal driven by positive internal and external factors, at which point mainstream coins and quality altcoins will experience a synchronized annual growth opportunity.