5.9 Market Analysis — BTC, ETH

News Highlights:

The non-farm unemployment rate of 4.3% met expectations, with April employment expected at 62k people; actual was 115k, revised from 178,000 to 185k.

Next week’s data releases:

Tuesday evening at 8:30 PM — April CPI;

Wednesday evening at 8:30 PM — April PPI.

Trading Data:

Hyperliquid: Since the pension account opened on April 2, there have been no position changes. Today, I looked at a few other major accounts that I previously followed; almost all of them have shifted from multi-million dollar positions to “small accounts” or even “closed accounts,” further confirming that the big accounts might be counter-trend, used for liquidation signals.

Coinglass: Heavy long liquidation zones over the past month:

BTC — 74,502-74,917, 72,842-73,118; ETH — 2,193-2,220, 2,150-2,177.

US Stocks:

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs again, as expected, and again closed the week with a “doji bullish” candle. The weekly chart has now shown six consecutive bullish weeks. Next week, it’s likely to rise first and then fall; after reaching a new high, a trend reversal may begin, with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart.

Technical Analysis:

BTC encountered resistance and pulled back after reaching the resistance zone of 80,598-82,656, which also lies at the lower boundary of the previous downtrend consolidation zone. Combined with weekly moving averages, the MA30 shows clear resistance. ETH, similarly, faced resistance after reaching the 2,423-2,475 zone, which is at the EMA20 on the weekly chart. This level has been suppressed four times at different degrees on the weekly level.

On the daily chart, BTC repeatedly consolidated above the MA120, then approached the MA180, briefly broke through, but then fell back below the moving averages. ETH oscillates around the MA120, with significant downward pressure from the larger moving averages, and a breakout could trigger further declines.

On the 12-hour chart, BTC bounced off support at 78,156-79,257 after resonating with EMA20, while ETH bounced from 2,236-2,273 support. After bouncing to the resistance zone of 80,598-82,656 and resonating with MA10, BTC faced resistance; ETH also encountered resistance at the trendline and MA45.

On the 4-hour chart, moving averages are somewhat chaotic but resonate with the 12-hour levels — BTC’s EMA20 and ETH’s EMA50.

In summary, after the recent decline, the structure is gradually forming a bearish pattern, with no clear signs of exhaustion. The rebound yesterday was limited, resembling a flag pattern in a downtrend. During this rally since April 5, multiple support levels have formed. Even if prices pull back, I believe there won’t be a sharp decline before breaking key support levels; instead, there will be repeated tests of support and rebounds. A rebound could occur after testing support, but due to downward pressure from larger moving averages, space is limited. It’s advisable to focus on short-term intraday trades, waiting for a breakout above resistance or a retest of key moving averages before entering long positions, or buying at support zones and key moving average resonance areas on the 4H and 12H charts (MA30, MA250, EMA50).

In a bear market, liquidity is severely limited, and BTC remains the most resilient. Therefore, on the technical side, whether it’s moving average systems or core supply and demand zones, we mainly plan trades based on BTC. External news also plays a significant role; Trump has been supporting the US stock market, and bubbles are visibly growing. However, I must acknowledge Huang Mao’s professional mastery of candlestick techniques. Whether from news or data, we must understand that the underlying logic serves “power finance.”

Finally, note that the support and resistance levels provided are based on different timeframes. Position management is always the top priority in trading. I personally divide positions into three types, with trend positions mainly using low leverage to open large-area trades. The support and resistance zones serve trend positions. For those who prefer intraday trading, it’s best to combine these levels with smaller timeframe structures and moving averages (e.g., 15 min, 1H) to find good entry points and directions.

Support and Resistance Zones:

BTC

Support: 78156-79257, 76588-77601, 74806-75500, 73024-74345

Resistance: 80598-82656, 83590-85140, 86380-87273

ETH

Support: 2236-2273, 2160-2204, 2088-2140, 1990-2041

Resistance: 2348-2390, 2423-2475, 2550-2616