So I was looking back at my ETH analysis from early January and honestly, that $3,600 target for February 2026 didn't quite pan out the way we thought it would. The setup looked textbook perfect back then - MACD momentum was strong, RSI was in that sweet spot, and we'd just broken above some key resistance levels. Everything pointed to a solid run higher.

But here we are in May and ethereum price has settled around $2.31K, which is a pretty different story. The bullish case made sense at the time with all the technical indicators aligning and institutional accumulation signals looking solid. We were trading above both the short and medium-term moving averages, and there was genuine buying pressure. The thing is, the broader crypto market had other plans.

What I got wrong was probably underestimating how much external factors could derail a clean technical setup. The $3,447 resistance level we identified became a ceiling pretty quickly, and when that didn't break, the whole bullish scenario started to unravel. By mid-February, it was clear the February 2026 target wasn't happening, and the support levels we outlined became increasingly relevant as the market shifted.

Looking at it now, the lesson is that even when the charts line up perfectly, you need to respect what the market is actually doing. The technical analysis was sound, but timing in crypto is brutal. Ethereum price movements depend on way more than just indicators - sentiment shifts, macro conditions, all of it matters. That's why I always say to keep your position sizes small and use proper stops. This one taught me that again.